The 2015-2019 period marked a tumultuous phase for the PP, rattled by the rise of Cs and VOX and rocked by a 2018 corruption scandal. The scandal, termed“the largest bribery scheme since the return to democracy”, 306 led to the conviction of nine affiliated businessmen and officials, and culminated in a€245,000 fine against the PP. It also triggered a no-confidence motion against Prime Minister Rajoy, propelled by PSOE’s Pedro Sánchez. Rajoy’s subsequent resignation from leadership further underscored the scandal’s profound impact on the party’s political fortunes. Table 6. PP voter loyalty and voter changes. UP PSOE Cs PP VOX Others Null/blank Abstained Total 2016 PP voters (April 2019 vote) Cases Percentages 3 0.3 45 4.0 148 13.2 541 48.2 211 18.8 24 2.2 3 0.3 148 13.2 1,123 100.0 April 2019 PP voters (November 2019 vote) Cases Percentages 0 0.1 4 0.6 9 1.5 447 72.3 78 12.6 3 0.4 3 0.4 75 12.2 618 100.0 Source: Own elaboration based on the April and November 2019 Spanish general elections post-election questionnaires. Notes: UP= Unidas Podemos PSOE= Partido Socialista Obrero Español Cs= Ciudadanos, PP= Partido Popular. Post-stratification electoral weights employed. Table 6 delineates the PP’s fluctuating voter loyalty, revealing a significant dip to 48.2% in April 2019, with many voters transitioning to Cs and VOX. By November 2019, PP loyalty rebounded to 72.3%, while defections to Cs and VOX declined, although this could also be due to the very short time between the two elections. 307 This voter shift reflects VOX’s emergence, often at the PP’s expense, suggesting a realignment of political loyalties in Spain. Scandals eroding trust in the PP have propelled voters towards populist alternatives. 308 Notably, VOX’s leadership, including Santiago Abascal, the president of VOX, shares roots with the PP, indicating a transfer not just of voters but of political personnel. 309 130 The transformation of the mainstream right and its impact on(social) democracy
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The transformation of the mainstream right and its impact on (social) democracy
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