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Policy challenges and policy actions for a just climate transition : five recovery plans in comparison
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2. METHODOLOGY The methodology consists of a comparative per­spective along three main directions of investigation: sectoral, territorial and policy analysis for five European countries Germany, Slovakia, Italy, Spain and Sweden. Specifically, this Recovery Watch is not limited to stud­ying the climate transition displayed in the NRRPs in general, rather it adopts the identification of sacrifice zones in relation to job creation and job destruction in the energy and in the automotive sectors as the main criterion of the analysis. As explained in Sections 2.1 and 2.2, the cases are identi­fied before checking whether the NRRPs under analysis directly target such cases. This captures whether the NRRPs address the actual consequences of the climate transition already taking place, from a local perspective, and whether the reforms of the NRRPs push or not the climate transition towards equitable paths. In addition, the NRRPs are evaluated in relation to other existing policies, beyond the recovery framework. The guess expectation is that existing and previous policy actions act asreinforcement policies, spurring virtu­ous mechanisms which strengthen existing conditions, creating synergies between the socio-economic system and different institutions, fostering positive externalities for which a country is more likely to be successful in the transition since it has already built the prerequisites to be. Likewise, the lack of existing policy actions to foster environmental sustainability and employment stability might undermine the overall efficacy of the NRRP. In what follows, we specify each step of the method­ology, namely the country case selection criteria, the sectoral and territorial focus, policy analysis and the adopted sources. COUNTRY CASE SELECTION The rationale behind the country choice is the follow­ing: Germany as a continental country; Slovakia as a central eastern-European country; Italy and Spain to compare two Mediterranean countries; and Sweden as avirtuous Scandinavian country. In particular, Germany can be considered as theproductive engine of the European Union, both in terms of the automo­tive and of the energy sectors(especially for renewable resources). Slovakia, as one of the Visegrad countries, is among the main suppliers and producers for the German automotive industry(among other countries), but it is still economically and environmentally transi­tioning. The automotive sector is important both for the Spanish and the Italian economies and they are the countries benefiting from the largest share of resourc­es from the recovery plans. Sweden employs a large proportion of workers in manufacturing and in the auto­motive industry and it is a positive benchmark case for environmental policies. SECTORAL AND TERRITORIAL FOCUS In order to assess the research questions presented in the Introduction, the analysis focuses on the pos­itive impact that the climate transition is expected to have on employment in the energy sector and on the negative impact expected in the automotive sector. Theoretically, we distinguishgreen versussacrifice zones in each country/sector, investigating whether new green zones are the result of the conversion of sacrifice zones or, alternatively, whether existing sacri­fice zones are planned to be converted into sustainable productive units to tackle the social-economic and health damages, controlling for the institutional and the public-policy involvement. We take into consideration a territorial dimension in order to understand not only at the macro, but also at the more local-geographical level, the effects of such policies. To provide evidence of the impact of the climate tran­sition on employment, specific cases in each country under analysis have been singled out, both for the en­ergy and the automotive sectors. Section 2.1 reports a short overview of the cases, to have a first understand­ing of the impact of the climate transition in terms of job losses and new jobs. Specific cases will be devel­oped in relation to the analysis of the NRRPs by country in Section 2.2. For both sectors of interest, the main sources for the identification of the green and sacrifice zones and the EV and hybrid plants are the Global Petrochemical Map, the Automotive Manufacturer Solutions website, documents provided by the European Commission, academic and grey literature, newspapers and dedicated websites. POLICY CHALLENGES AND POLICY ACTIONS FOR A JUST CLIMATE TRANSITION 13 FIVE RECOVERY PLANS IN COMPARISON