PERSPECTIVE PEACE AND SECURITY NO LONGER OFF THE RADAR – NATO‘S ENLARGEMENT TO THE NORTH AND ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR THE BALTIC STATES Lukas Hassebrauck Riga, March 2023 Until now, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania have been NATO’s strategic Achilles’ heel. The accession of Fin­land and Sweden to the transatlantic alliance will change this geopolitical situation and will make the defence of the Baltic states much easier for the West­ern alliance in the future. Tallinn, Riga and Vilnius will therefore be the main beneficiaries of the newly emerging security architecture in the Baltic Sea re­gion. For NATO, the accession of Finland and Sweden is a military and political gain. The two new members will bring along stable democratic institutions, well­equipped, technologically advanced and high-quali­ty armed forces to the Alliance. As a result, NATO’s force portfolio is being noticeably improved, particu­larly in the navy, artillery and air defence domains. Russia, on the other hand, is getting into a defensive position in the region. The Baltic Sea effectively be­comes somewhat of a“NATO lake”. The operational capabilities of the Russian air and naval forces are be­ing severely curtailed. In the future, a rapid fait accom­pli in the Baltics can no longer be shielded from the sea side by the occupation of the island of Gotland. At the same time, Kaliningrad will become even more of a neuralgic point for Russia. Nevertheless, the Kremlin has refrained from taking military reactions so far. Finland’s accession will create an additional 1,300 border kilometres between Russia and NATO and thus effectively more than double the current length of the border. With his aggressive expanstionist pol­icy, President Putin has thus achieved exactly the opposite of what he originally intended.