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Charter of the economy : agenda for economic reforms in Pakistan
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Charter of the Economy that it will now be attained ten years later in 2024-25 by design and implementation of a strong agenda of tax reforms. Non-tax revenues reached a peak in 2019-20 due to the record profits made by the SBP in the presence of high interest rates. They have fallen in 2020-21. Dividends and interest payments will start rising thereafter with improvement in functioning of State-Owned Enterprises. Also, there is the expectation of higher cost recovery in canal irrigation, highways, and other economic services. The consolidated budget is envisaged to decline from 8.1 percent of the GDP to 5 percent of the GDP by 2024-25. This is essential to keep the costs of borrowing low and limit the impact of Government borrowing on monetary expansion and the rate of inflation. Importantly, the target is to bring down the Government Debt to GDP ratio from 78 percent in 2019-20 to 70 percent by 2024-25. The analysis next highlights in Table 7.7 how the different components of public expenditure can be financed from the projected National Resources Picture. The burden of debt servicing is projected to decline from 6.6 percent to 5.5 percent of the GDP along with the fall in the Government Debt to GDP ratio. Defense expenditure is expected to remain close to 3 percent of the GDP. The big increase anticipated is in development expenditure from 2.5 percent of the GDP to 4 percent of the GDP by 2024-25. This is critical for speeding up the implementation of key projects in water resources, power generation by renewable energy and improved transmission and distribution, development of SEZs and vital inputs to promote human development and attainment of the SDGs. Higher development spending will also provide a stimulus to growth. The level of other current expenditure has been sustained for higher payment of subsidies and financing the social protection program, along with rising pensions and salaries. Table 7.7: Projected Expenditure by Type 2020-21 National Resource Picture 22.1 Expenditure 22.1 Debt Servicing 6.4 Defense Expenditure 2.7 Development Expenditure 2.8 Other Current Expenditure 10.2 Source : Projections. 2021-22 22.7 22.7 6.1 2.9 3.3 10.4 2022-23 23.0 23.0 5.8 3.0 3.6 10.6 2023-24 23.2 23.2 5.7 3.0 3.8 10.7 (% of GDP) 2024-25 23.4 23.4 5.5 3.1 4.0 10.8 70