The IMF Program Chapter 19: The IMF Program The IMF Program which remained suspended for almost one year after COVID-19 has become operational once again. Effectively the Program has entered the period of the Sixth Quarterly Review up to the end of the current financial year. This implies that the Program will continue till the end of September 2022. Meanwhile the IMF has played a supportive role. Under the Rapid Financing Facility, a loan of$1.4 billion was released on a fast-track basis to counter the negative impact of COVID-19 in June 2020. Now at the time of resumption a quarterly installment of the loan under the Extended Fund Facility has also been advanced of$500 million. The sixth review of the Program was held in the first week of June 2021. If Pakistan had succeeded in this review, then a loan installment of$1 billion would have been received from the IMF. But the review identified a lack of implementation of many reforms, which are described below. Consequently, the Program was effectively suspended up to the 7 th review due in September 2021. At this time, Pakistan’s performance will be assessed in key sectors of the economy, especially after the Federal and Provincial budgets of 2021-22. This chapter highlights the macroeconomic, fiscal and balance of payments projections for 2021-22 by the IMF and the Federal Government in the Annual Plan for 2021-22, approved by the National Economic Council. This is followed by a listing of the reforms that are to be completed next year as agreed with the IMF in the fifth review. The performance criteria and indicative targets in the Program are presented for the first and second quarter of 2021-22, followed by an assessment of the likelihood of success. The final section explores the impact of a termination of the program by the IMF or a voluntary withdrawal from the program by Pakistan. The impact on the economy and the steps needed to avert a financial crisis in either case will also be identified. 19.1. Projections for 2021-22 The IMF expects the GDP growth rage in 2021-22 to be somewhat slower at 4 percent in 2021-22, as compared to the Government’s projection of 4.8 percent. However, there is a big contradiction here. IMF’s estimate of the total investment to GDP ratio is 15.5 percent of the GDP as compared to 14.4 percent of the GDP in the Annual Plan. This implies that the IMF’s expectation is that private investment will be more buoyant in 2021-22. As 183