Tallinn ANALYSIS 2019 Parliamentary elections in Estonia ANU TOOTS March 2019 „ The elections to the fourteenth Riigikogu on 3 March 2019 did not yield major changes at fi rst glance, but do indicate some structural changes. Although all political parties represented in the new parliament have been in parliament before, relative strengths are markedly different. The new parliament will be signi fi cant­ly more right-wing(with 65 seats as against 36 for parties on the left). „ While voter turnout, at 63.7 per cent, was similar to previous elections, there is a clearly rising trend in pre-election voting, especially e-voting. Such options obviously promote a shift towards higher involve­ment on the part of voters abroad, as well as of middle and higher income voters. Election day itself is losing importance. „ The election campaign lacked a clear pervasive theme, but rather largely circled around centre-right and neoliberal issues. Furthermore, over the course of the campaign complex issues were simpli fi ed within a populist framework, which had a direct effect on the election outcome. This of course favoured the two winners, namely the neoliberal Reform Party and the right-wing populist Conservative People’s Party (EKRE), while bringing about a demobilisation of lower-income and ethnic Russian voters. This weakened the Centre Party and to some extent the Social Democrats. „ The Social Democrats suffered a major defeat, losing fi ve of their 15 seats, as well as their strongholds in south-east Estonia. Due to a lack of appealing candidates and the dominant polarising, nationalistic dis­course the party failed in both agenda-setting and in getting its core messages across. „ Coalition formation will be more dif fi cult this time. The winning Reform Party has fi rmly excluded a coali­tion with the right-wing populist EKRE. All other combinations are possible, but each is impeded through mutually precluding positions.