Publikationen der Stiftung → Austerity vs. efficiency
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  • Preliminary estimates of the IMF show that the recovery of the economy was discontinued in 2011; and, most probably, in 2012, and even in 2013, the negative trend will be preserved. This forecast was confirmed in spring 2012 by the European Commission. International experts specify that, if there is some economic growth, it will be insignificant, and tending to 0% on an annual basis. The economy of Bulgaria received some “shocks” at the initial stage of the crisis and its proliferation, and the economy is expected to have a longer downturn in time with a growth close to zero, or at zero level, without any indications for positive near-future growth. Restructuring of the labor markets is wrongfully applied. Austerity policies produce imaginary stability, which has a procyclical effect, inevitably. The crisis in Bulgaria will be a long-term one, and it will also be stronger, as the country is de-industrialized and does not own any more national highly competitive industrial and trade capital; in addition, the foreign capital in the industry sector is rather incidental, while in the trade sector it is speculative by nature to a great extent, or the trade profits are exported abroad.