Four scenarios for relations between the EU, the Russian Federation, and their Common Neighbourhood in 2030 were developed by a multinational Scenario Group over the summer of 2014. The scenarios do not attempt to predict the future, but offer different visions of possible and plausible futures. They can be helpful in enabling decision-makers and stakeholders to adapt their strategies in order to achieve or avoid a certain scenario.

The Scenarios describe the character of the European home by the year 2030. Will it be a "Shared Home" that all Europeans live in together for pragmatic reasons? Or will there be a "Common Home" for all nations, bound together by common values? The "Broken Home" scenario envisions the European Home to lie in ruins by 2030, whereas in the "Divided Home", Europeans live next door, but apart from each other.