The analysis seeks to assess the present status of the main players in the region and attempts to identify the most likely directions in regional developments. The policy brief also assesses the geopolitical and other transformations in the region and identifies opportunities for and obstacles to inter-state cooperation and regionalism in the field of security.

To a great extent, the Syrian crisis reflects the regional security architecture of the Middle East: the ever-increasing dominance of Iran and Russia, the strengthening of Assad’s rule, and the increasing concern in the US and the Sunni countries regarding Iran’s mounting status. These will continue to characterize the predicted struggle in the near future.

Russia’s return to playing a more vital role in the region boosts its status; however, this also involves formidable challenges. Success of the political process in Syria and relations with Washington will clarify the direction in which Moscow will be heading.