Publikationen der Stiftung → A decade of rosy forecasts Titel
Publikationen der Stiftung → A decade of rosy forecasts
Titel
Titelaufnahme
Titelaufnahme
- TitelA decade of rosy forecasts : how the IMF underestimated debt risks in the MENA region
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- Umfang1 Online-Ressource (21 Seiten) : Diagramme
- SpracheEnglisch
- SerieStudyEconomy and finance
- DokumenttypDruckschrift
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Zusammenfassung
The economic and fiscal impact of the COVID-19 pandemic led to a drastic deterioration of the debt situation in developing countries. Therefore, the debt sustainability analyses conducted by the IMF are central to the early detection and resolution of debt crises. However, looking at a decade of IMF forecasting practice in three MENA countries, the research finds a systematic tendency towards over-optimism.