Publikationen der Stiftung → The red wave that wasn't
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  • After the historic 2022 midterm elections, the 118th Congress is in office and has gotten off to a bumpy start, splitting Republican party members. The U.S. midterm elections have historically been marked by defeat for the party of the incumbent president. Political forecasters predicted a "red wave" would sweep the country in November 2022 - a moment of reckoning with the Biden administration. Instead, Democrats posted a big win, expanding their majority in the Senate and exceeding expectations in the House.

    A narrative of President Biden's low approval rating, domestic political concerns, and a worsening situation on the U.S.-Mexico border led to expect defeat in both chambers. Several factors, including the effect of the Supreme CourtÕs abortion ruling, concerns about Democratic backsliding, and the president's domestic and foreign policy successes over the past two years, mobilized Democratic and independent voters to mitigate the projected defeat.

    The authors analyze the developments that led to the Democratic Party's successes in the 2022 midterm elections and outline the challenges that lie ahead. The analysis also previews the Biden administration's chances of passing legislation with a lack of a majority in the House of Representatives.