YIHONG MAO China: Set to Advance Beyond Technocratic Semi-modernization T he tempestuously unfolding economic reforms which were introduced in the late 1970 s in China were accompanied by rapid social change. These changes as a whole are undoubtedly of global historical importance and the economic and political consequences which arise from them are considered to be one of the most significant chal­lenges for the coming century by many persons in positions of responsibility in the West. Unnoticed by the general public at the time, a few peasants in a village in the south of China one winter night at the start of 1978 divided up the hitherto collectively cultivated land among themselves. This move, which was not only tolera­ted from above, but expressly accepted, marked the beginning of unprecedented reforms and the abandonment of the planned economy which had dominated the People’s Republic of China since its foundation in 1949 . The rules and principles of a market economy have not by any means been adopted in all areas and sectors, yet even to date China’s economic successes, within a relatively short period of time, are astonishing. Just a few figures to illustrate this: from 1979 to 1997 gross domestic product grew year on year by an average of 9.8 percent, from 1990 to 1997 growth even rose to an annual average of 11.6 percent. That repre­sents top international performance. In the order of states with the highest gross national product, China ranks already as number seven. Its share in world trade rose from 0.75 percent in 1978 to 3.4 percent in 1997 . This makes it one of the ten leading trading nations in the world. Economi­cally, China is considered in the world trade organ-izations and the world financial institu­tions to be one of the most important countries in the world. Thus it is no surprise that in 1998 China was once again the second most important invest­ment country after the US , with foreign capital flowing above all into joint ventures and into the Special Economic Zones.»Since the end of the 1970 s, China has been the fastest growing eco­nomy in the world and it will most likely have caught up with the US by 2025 ,« the former Ger­man ambas-sador to Peking, Konrad Seitz, com­mented recently. The talk is of a»Chinese miracle« and to concern oneself with China has become fashionable. Limits to Gradualism In contrast to the land-slide changes, even collap­ses of the old systems and structures in the former Soviet Union(a real shock experience for the Chinese communists), the Chinese attempted to tread the path of gradual change in their development. It began with the reform of agricul­ture which relied, to start with, on the especially stable and effective family structures in the coun­tryside and the process was introduced on a trial basis in selected poor rural areas. Thereafter, the experience which had been gained and the suc­cesses which had been achieved, which soon led to an improvement in the general supply situation, were to be applied to small businesses and the much more difficult industrial sectors, to urban areas and also to those regions which were dis­advantaged by their lack of natural resources. As Deng Xiaoping expressed it, the procedure con­sisted of»crossing the river by feeling for the stones«. This motto revealed a very pragmatic ori­entation of the economic reform processes. An ideological dispute about dogmatic positions, an argument about socialism versus capitalism, was deemed to be unnecessary and pointless, indeed harmful. All sections of the population were intended to profit from the reform policy. The program was designated:»Growth with just distri­bution«. Political unrest and social conflict were seen not as a consequence of disparities in develop­ment but as their cause, with blame being placed 54 Mao, China: Beyond Technocratic Semi-modernization IPG 1/2000