JOSÉ DIRCEU Brazil: The Predicament of Dependency, Stagnation and Social Disintegration O n the eve of the third millennium, Brazil is beset by restrictions. While possessing the eco­nomic, cultural and even technological founda­tions for development, the country is also in a position of losing its economic autonomy and risks sacrificing its most crucial element: political independence and national identity. Brazil began as a European colony, first belonging to Portugal and later dependent on London. During the last fifty years, the country has experienced a long growth period. However, the consequence of this economic growth process has been a concentration of income. Brazil now boasts the unenviable position of having the worst income concentration index in the world and is ranked 79 in the United Nations’ Human Devel­opment Index. Brazil experienced thirty years of dictatorial regimes in the middle of the 20 th century. Con­trary to other European countries, it stopped making even minimal democratic reforms in the areas of politics, tax and agriculture. It was incap­able of solving problems such as the drought suf­fered in the Northeast of the country. Two thirds of the population became concentrated in cities and metropolitan areas where today people live in fear and insecurity, the product of a dependent and exclusive development model. A third or more of their inhabitants do not have access to public services such as health, education, basic sanitation and safety. The seriousness of Brazil’s situation at the end of the century is expressed by the growth of social apartheid and political instability which have again taken control of the country. In addi­tion to reinforcing injustice, Brazil’s model of eco­nomic growth is ecologically unsustainable. Brazil is ranked eighth as an industrial eco­nomy, has the fifth largest land mass and the sixth largest population in the world. It is among the twelve countries world-wide that have basic indu­stry as well as modern agroindustry. Brazil’s uni­versities are excellent centers of scientific and tech­nological research and the country has one of the last remaining agricultural frontiers. Its min­eral resources and the biodiversity of the Amazon Basin are renowned. But the great challenge Brazil faces today at the turn of millennium is to pre­vent globalization from aggravating the country’s social, cultural and political inequalities. The hope of meeting the challenge hinges on a democratic revolution. Social and Political Decay Today, Brazil suffers from economic stagnation, political instability and extreme inequality. This has been a result of the country’s dependent and sub­ordinated inclusion in the globalization process and its loss of political and economic autonomy. The entrepreneurial and political elite and Brazil’s governing conservative coalition completely lost sight of national direction by increasing the coun­try’s debt and allowing its economy to become totally dependent on speculative capital. Privatiza­tion, along with the opening and deregulation of the Brazilian economy, denationalized the coun­try’s assets, and to a certain extent initiated a cycle of de-industrialization which aggravated Brazil’s regional and social inequality. The same predica­ment had already been witnessed in Argentina. It caused a surge of unemployment, violence and an unprecedented increase in crime, exacerbated by the failure of public security systems and the Federal Police Force. The social problems put the country’s future at jeopardy as they leave no place and no prospects for the majority of young people. In addition, the social and cultural gap between the country’s minority( 10 % of the population), in which half the national income is concentrated, and the majority is becoming ever wider. At the same time, public services are being dismantled 26 Dirceu, Brazil: The Predicament of Dependency, Stagnation and Social Desintegration IPG 1/2000