The Societal Sources of Change in the Middle East CHRISTIAN KOCH D espite the widespread opposition within the Middle East, throughout Europe, and in other parts of the globe against the us -led military in­vasion of Iraq in spring 2003, there was an underlying sense of anticipa­tion that the removal of Saddam Hussein from power and the subsequent establishment of a more liberal political order in Baghdad would in fact serve as a catalyst to promote political change in the Middle East. While many argued that the war was fought on false premises and for the wrong reasons, there nevertheless existed a common minimum expectation that the forced removal of an authoritarian government at the heart of the chronically unstable Middle East would serve as a jolt for the aging Arab leaderships finally to deal more seriously with the numerous political, economic, and social deficits that today characterize large sections of the region stretching from Morocco to Iran. To be clear, few subscribed to the idealistic notion of the us administration, and particularly the propo­nents of so-called neo-conservatism, that, as President Bush stated,»the establishment of a free Iraq at the heart of the Middle East will be a wa­tershed event in the global democratic revolution«, 1 or that»a new re­gime in Iraq would serve as a dramatic and inspiring example for freedom for other nations in the region.« 2 Nevertheless, faint hopes were present that a post-Saddam environment would result in opportunities and more positive consequences for the region and propel the Middle East on a dif­ferent path from the recurring violence of the past. 1. Remarks by us President George W. Bush at the 20th Anniversary of the National Endowment for Democracy, November 6, 2003, available at http://www.white­house.gov/news/releases/2003/11/20031106-2.html. 2. Remarks by us President George W. Bush to the American Enterprise Institute, February 26, 2003, available at http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2003/ 02/20030226-11.html. Assistant Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz stated that »Iraq as the first Arab democracy … would cast a very large shadow, starting with Syria and Iran but across the whole Arab world«. 54 Koch, Change in the Middle East ipg 4/2004