The International Raw Materials Boom. A Challenge for Multilateral Trade Policy MARTIN STÜRMER T he rule of thumb according to which 20 percent of the world’s popula­tion consumes 80 percent of its raw materials no longer holds. Due to rapid industrialization in China and other developing countries hundreds of millions of people are coming to attain a standard of living previously available only to people in the industrialized countries. This new prosper­ity entails a rapidly increasing use of raw materials; the European Com­mission estimates that by 2025 global raw-material consumption could have increased fourfold(2005: 3). Rapidly increasing demand has thoroughly transformed international raw materials markets in the last five years. Shortages and massive price increases are leading to competition between consumer nations. Many fear a»new Cold War« for raw materials(Follath/ Jung 2006). These de­velopments will present the multilateral world trade regime, which regu­lates trade in energy, agricultural, and metallic raw materials with new challenges. Taking metals as an example, we shall analyze the development of the world trade regime since the end of the Second World War. We shall then present the new trade-policy challenges due to growing raw materials consumption, as well as the raw materials policy of China and other states. Finally, we shall discuss the first proposals for the development of multi­lateral regulation of raw materials markets. Metallic Raw Materials – Not in Short Supply Geologically Metallic raw materials are essential for industrialization and the building of infrastructure. They include such basic metals as copper, zinc, and steel, as well as their precursors, but also metals used in low quantities, such as tantalum and tungsten. Use, price, and market development are different from metal to metal. Here we can present only trends and use individual metals as examples. 126 Stürmer, Raw Materials Boom and Trade Policy ipg 2/2008