The vote was surprising, both in its size and in its regard for the status quo,but the government perches precariously between socialists and Far Rightists
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As the August elec-tions in westernGermany showed,the pieces of theGerman puzzle arenot so easy to puttogether. The polit-ical experts were as poor at prophecy inGermany as they had been the year be-fore in America . Detecting, as theythought, an overwhelming popular dis-gust with the political system and theexisting parties, they predicted a verysmall vote, with spectacular gains forthe extremists. The vote was large andunsensational.
Obviously the dark side of the Ger man picture was overdone. The expertswere obsessed by the nine million refu-gees from the east, who live uprooted,morbid existences; the three millionex- Nazis , entitled to vote for the firsttime; the youth, the best of whom havelost the ability to put faith in anything;and the former professional soldiers,who form a loose but intimate commu-nity with a tradition of militarism andnationalism extending back far beyondHitler . These groups may some dayturn out to be a big menace, but theydidn't in 1949, perhaps because thetime was not ripe for them.
The power that came out on top inGermany - narrowly, insecurely, per-haps temporarily- was the conserva-tive middle class. Of all the unknownquantities, it proved to be the biggestand the least advertised. The middleclass had been strengthened and evenenlarged by the economic recovery thatfollowed the currency reform last year.While the index of industrial produc-tion was rising from 51 in June, 1948,to 90 in March, 1949, a political forceat once irresistible and intangible wasset in motion. Some people benefitedtoo much and many not enough; some
industries are booming and others arebegging; but, all in all, those who hada stake in the economic revival out-numbered those who did not.
Naturally there were other influencesat work, too, but the economic upswingwas the decisive one. The balance, ofcourse, is so nervous and delicate thatan economic movement in reversecould easily bring about the most pes-simistic of the political predictions.It is necessary only to look at the par-ties individually to see that nothing hasbeen settled, everything postponed.
Free Democrats. To understand whathappened in the August election, ithappened in the August election, itmay be best to start with the Free Dem-ocratic Party( F.D.P.). It ran third inthe election, but is the fastest- growingand most strategically- situated party inGermany . It is the only one of theBig Four that gained both absolutelyand relatively. The Christian Demo-crats and Social Democrats gained ab-solutely but lost relatively, and theCommunists lost both absolutely andrelatively.
In the 1947 Landtag elections, be-fore the currency reform, the F.D.P.ran fourth, behind even the Commu nists . Its organization then consisted es-sentially of a list of candidates. Its chiefasset was its license from Military Gov-ernment to call itself a party. In therecent election, fourteen months afterthe currency reform, it almost doubledits vote, won one- eighth of the seats inparliament and one- fourth of the cabi-net posts, as well as the presidency. Itsthree million voters undoubtedly camepredominantly from upper- and- mid-dle- income people who had profitedfrom the currency reform
Of all the parties, the F.D.P. stoodfor free enterprise in its purest form.When the index of industrial produc-
tion was 28 in 1947, theirs was not avery popular political program. In1949, with the index in the uppereighties, it was.
If the Free Democratic successmeant anything, it was that the Protes tant middle class is again a powerfulpolitical force in Germany . The Chris-tian Democrats also insisted on old-fashioned capitalism, but they com-bined it with clerical and federalisticprinciples. The Free Democratic mix-ture- capitalism, anticlericalism, andstrong, centralized government- tra-ditionally makes a greater appeal to theProtestant middle class. Yet the Ger man middle class, Protestant or other-wise, has always been too insecure andshifting to stick to any one outlook, andthat inconsistency is reflected in theFree Democratic Party.
In Württemberg- Baden , in theAmerican Zone, where President The odor Heuss comes from, the F.D.P. isprobably the nearest approach to awestern- style democratic party. Furthernorth in the British Zone , in Lower Saxony and Schleswig- Holstein , ittakes on a more nationalistic complex-ion. The movement has as many alli-ances as it has factions. In the Bonn Government, it is the natural ally of theChristian Democrats. In several states,it shares power with the Social Demo crats . And in Hesse , in the AmericanZone, it made a coalition with the ex-treme right.
The Hesse situation shows what maybe lurking just beneath the surface.Municipal elections were held in Wies baden , in Hesse , in April 1948. Almosta quarter of the votes went to the Na tional Democratic Party , a locally-licensed group , which demanded,among other things, the reconstitutionof the Wehrmacht and revival of theflag of the Kaiserreich. The Hesse
The Reporter, October 11, 1949