INTERNATIONAL POLICY ANALYSIS Hold-out or Silent Supporter? Implications of the Humanitarian Initiative„ on Nuclear Weapons for Germany KATARZYNA KUBIAK July 2015 „ „ Even though the world community agrees on the need for nuclear disarmament, states differ in their visions of how to achieve this goal. The recently rejuvenated »humanitarian initiative« points to the catastrophic humanitarian consequences of nuclear weapons and aims to accelerate progress on nuclear disarmament by legally prohibiting nuclear weapons. This policy paper examines the political, legal, military, and economic implications of the German government’s decision to engage in the »humanitarian initiative« on three levels:(1) supporting the»Humanitarian Pledge« (2) negotiating a treaty banning nuclear weapons, and(3) signing it. The implica­tions are discussed in the context of the domestic and a wider international security debate, including NATO and the European Union. „ „ Engaging in the»humanitarian initiative« has potentially both favorable and unfa­vorable implications for Berlin, mainly political ones at the international level. Poten­tial negative repercussions include antagonizing its NATO allies, triggering a risky de­bate over the Alliance’s nuclear deterrence posture, and weakening Berlin’s standing in NATO and as a result its power as a mediator in efforts to bring about a peaceful solution to the war currently being waged in Ukraine. Potential positive repercussions include Berlin living up to its image as a supporter of nuclear disarmament, fulfilling its legal obligations to support nuclear disarmament under article VI of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, and solving the problem of finding a replacement for the nuclear capable Tornado aircraft. „ „ Whether Germany would join a treaty banning nuclear weapons depends on at least three factors: first, on developments within NATO and in the European security order; second, on the number of states joining such a treaty and the pressure they would exert on the German government; and third, on the German government’s conviction that the treaty would not antagonize nuclear weapons states and under­mine progress toward nuclear disarmament.