PERSPECTIVE Alexandra Dienes and Sabrina Kaschowitz March 2026 EU engagement in Central Asia: a reality check Key findings → Russia’s war in Ukraine has not fundamentally reshaped the power balance in Central Asia: the region continues to navigate between the major powers. → Russia remains the key political and security actor in the region and wields strong economic leverage, even though its traditionally strong soft power is declining. → China’s strong economic influence and rising soft power are accompanied by a push to embed its own technolo­gies and standards in order to align Central Asia struc­turally with a China-centric technical ecosystem. → The EU, despite being the region’s largest foreign inves­tor, has been struggling to attain visibility on the ground. Its increased attention to the region is viewed in the context of renewed great-power rivalry and the di­versification of supply chains. Democracy, the rule of law and human rights remain Europe’s distinctive assets and core drivers of its soft power in Central Asia. → Regional cooperation is gaining momentum in Central Asia for the first time in decades, allowing for more cross-border trade, joint ventures, free travel and expert exchanges. EU engagement in Central Asia: a reality check 1