RUDOLF TRAUB-MERZ| WAGE STRIKES AND TRADE UNIONS IN CHINA upbringing, health and pensions and they also aspire to urban consumerism. Discrimination on account of their background is no longer acceptable. With better formal education, knowledge of modern means of communica­tion and the need to put down urban roots they seek not only permanent jobs with good employment conditions and possibilities for individual advancement, but are also prepared to assert their interests via collective action. Their stronger negotiating position is underpinned by demographic trends. In 2004, companies in the export zones of Guangdong province reported a labour short­age for the first time. In 2010, again, many jobs could not be filled. This conceals not only temporary migra­tory movements, but also the rapid aging of the Chinese population. Although the turning point with regard to population growth will be reached only in 2025/2030, due to the one-child policy  1 1 this has been dramatically brought forward for the working population and already applies. Even if it is disputed whether the annual increase in jobs already exceeds  1 2 the additional supply of labour, the trends are unambiguous: the working population – which roughly corresponds to those aged 15-59(see Table 1) – is declining and thus the era of unlimited sup­plies of migrant workers is at an end. 3. Trade Unions in China: Transmission Belts, Mediators or Interest Representatives? From the 1950s Chinese trade unions were integrated within the constraints of the centralised planned econo­my, directing their efforts to boosting plant productivity and became responsible for the distribution of social be­nefits and services to the workforce. Wage negotiations were obsolete and labour relations were characterised by lifelong employment for all and state wage determi­nation. The radical reform of the public sector, in the course of which around 50,000 state-owned companies were wound up between 1995 and 2002, called time on so­cial employment policy and plunged the ACFTU into 11. The one-child policy, which at first was rigorously applied, was subse ­quently considerably diluted and now applies mainly to urban couples. In rural areas the two-child rule dominates, while for ethnic minorities more liberal provisions apply. 12. This is influenced primarily by the release of further workers from the rural economy and rising productivity. Table 1: Population increase, 2000-2050 (millions; medium variant) Years / Increase Population Age group 15-59 2000-05+ 45,3+ 66,7 2005-10+ 41,9+ 36,9 2010-15+ 41,9+ 5,2 2015-20+ 35,2- 0,007 2020-25+ 22,0- 17,8 2025-30+ 9,3- 32,1 2030-35- 0,1- 28,1 2035-40- 7,3- 12,9 2040-45- 14,8- 25,4 2045-50- 23,2- 47,0 Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision, http://esa.un.org/unpp. deep organisational crisis. The cull deprived the trade unions, which until then had been represented only in state-owned companies, of their central area of respon­sibility and buried the socialist welfare policy which had been bound up with factory units. In the space of only four years ACFTU lost 17 million members and faced the prospect of marginalisation. In 1999, ACFTU tried to turn the situation around. Spurred on by the CPC, which had insufficient presence in the now booming private sector, ACFTU set about organising in private companies. Within only a decade ACFTU gained – according to its own figures – 140 mil­lion new members. Today, it is nominally represented in around 2 million establishments or work units. On the urban labour market, with its 311 million workers(2009) it has a density of around 75 per cent. If one extends the waged workforce to include the 150 million rural workers, for which ACFTU does not consider itself res­ponsible, trade union density is still around 50 per cent. The high nominal presence does not mean, however, that the socialist trade unions were able to transform them­selves into a countervailing power in urban labour mar­kets and in privately owned companies. In the latter, the trade unions remained after 1999/2000 what they had been hitherto in state-owned companies: a state labour bureaucracy whose primary task is to prevent labour conflicts. In fact, the founding of trade unions in private 4