NINA NETZER AND JOCHEN STEINHILBER(EDS.)| THE END OF NUCLEAR ENERGY? when a legal framework(2000) obliged EDF to(re)buy renewable electricity, the repurchase rate that was fixed for EDF was quite low and thus discouraged private in­vestors. 8 Currently, hydro power is the major renewable energy source in France. It provides 90 per cent of re­newable electricity production and covers 12 per cent of the country’s total electricity consumption, whereas electricity production from wind power is only 1.5 per cent, and close to zero for solar, biomass, and geother­mal. Only recently has the government developed a concrete action plan with the aim of putting European Directive 28/CE/2009(related to the promotion of re­newable energies) into force. It envisages raising the share of renewable energy in energy production to 23 per cent by 2020, which would mean more than dou­bling its capacity(i. e., a shift from 17 to 37 Mtep). 9 Nevertheless, no official nuclear phase-out scenarios are being considered. Indeed, nuclear phase-out scenarios in France have mostly been developed by NGOs or independent coun­selling bodies. According to a scenario proposed in 2006 by NegaWatt – an expert NGO specialised in energy eco­nomies and renewable energies – France can abandon nuclear energy by 2035 if it decides to stabilise, or even reduce, its energy consumption(at a level of~ 420 TWh) by 2050(via the prevention of energy loss, renewal of the current energy equipment, replacement of electric radiators by other energy sources, etc.) and if it heavily invests in alternative energies. 10 The NegaWatt scenario estimates that, thanks to new and more efficient wind power technologies, offshore implementation possibili­ties, and progress achieved with insertion of wind tur­bines in the electricity network, wind energy can provide 137 TWh of electricity produced in France by 2050(64 onshore, 73 offshore). Hydro power would be the sec­ond largest energy source, according to this scenario, as it already has an installed capacity of 70 TWh, which can be raised up to 80 TWh through efficiency mea­sures and without necessarily constructing new big dams. Thirdly, the NegaWatt scenario relies on solar photovoltaic, which it also considers very promising for France. With good utilisation of available spaces 8. Ibid. 9. Mtep= million tonnes of equivalent petrol. French Ministry of Ecolo­gy, Energy, Sustainable Development and Seas, Plan d’action national en faveur des énergiesrenouvelables, période 2009-2010. 10. Negawatt, Scenario Negawatt 2006. Pour un avenir énergétique sobre, efficace et renouvelable, December 2005. (roofs, building fronts, etc.) and stations constructed on abandoned / idle terrains(wastelands, route edges), the NegaWatt experts estimate a production of 65 TWh from photovoltaics by 2050. Finally, the NegaWatt scenario foresees the development of other renew­able sources, namely biomass, sea energies(current and wave technology), and geothermal energy, which offer a potential production of 50 TWh, 10 TWh, and 25 TWh of electricity, respectively, by 2050. Other nuclear phase-out scenarios exist as well, 11 with slight differences in their objectives and the means uti­lised. Thus, some of them estimate that a nuclear phase­out is urgent and should be planned for soon by replac­ing nuclear power stations not only with renewable sources but also fossil energies(especially coal), at least temporarily. Others consider such a vision unrealistic and risky in terms of its social and political acceptability(con­sidering the importance now given to climate change problems, which has resulted in a systematic rejection of fossil energy sources as a substitute for nuclear ener­gy). They estimate that the only alternative to nuclear is renewable energies. Nevertheless, the main problem for France is not the absence of alternative energy scenarios. The problem is that the alternatives to nuclear have been rejected by politicians and removed from media debates for the last four decades. Indeed, French public opinion first needs to rediscover its faith in alternatives, which have been de-legitimised in this country as an unrealistic »dream« or»utopia«. Only afterwards will it be possible for French society to envisage the most appropriate non­nuclear energy choices – which are, above all, social and political choices. 11. Réseau Sortir du Nucléaire, Nucléaire: comment en sortir? Docu­ment d’information; IEER, Low-Carbon Diet without Nukes in France, May 2006. 34