2 62 China , theEUandLatinAmerica:CurrentIssuesandFutureCooperation countrieswillhavethesameresultasitdidfortheEuropeans:itwillcement Chinasroleasamajorglobalpower.Afterall , LatinAmericansandChinese sharemanymorethingsthanEuropeansandLatinAmericans:perhapsnotfrom thepointofviewoftraditionalcultureandvalues , butasmembersoftheG5and G20 , forexample.Theinternationaleconomiccrisiswillcertainlybealitmus testfortheserelationsandthecoincidenceofinterests.Nonetheless , Chinahas totakebabystepsintermsofitsrelationswithLatinAmerica.Providingcash starvedgovernmentswithresourcesmaybeadoubleedgedsword. FromtheLatinAmericanperspective , itwouldbeamistaketothinkthat ChinaisasubstituteforitsrelationswitheithertheUSAortheEU.Noneof theseactorscansubstituteforoneanother.Trueinterests — andsomewould say , valuestoo — mustbeatthebasisofrelations , beyondthesempiternalneed todiversify. Iffacts mustbetakenintoaccount , itshouldbenotedthatChina will displaceEuropeand willbeclosebehindthe USA asadestinationofLatin Americanexportsinaboutadecade , accordingtoarecentstudypublishedbythe UnitedNationsEconomicCommissionforLatin AmericaandtheCaribbean ( ECLAC ),“ ThePeoples RepublicofChinaand Latin Americaandthe Caribbean:TowardsaStrategicRelationship ” .Ifthecurrentgrowthrateof LatinAmericanexportstoitsmainmarketsismaintained , Chinasparticipation willrisefrom7.6percentin2009to19.3percentin2020.Inthesameperiod , theEUwillmaintainparticipationofaround14percentandwillbesurpassedby Chinain2015. Accordingtothisreport , thegrowthofChinaasadestinationofLatin Americanexportswillbeachievedasaresultofthepersistentfallintheregions exportstotheUnitedStates , from38.6percentofthetotalin2009to28.4per centin2020.TheECLACdoessay , however , thattheimportanceofChinaasan exportmarketvariesnotablyamongLatinAmericancountries , giventhatitisa keydestinationforChile , PeruandArgentina , forexample , butnotforCentral America , withthenotableexceptionofCostaRica.InthecaseofMexico , its exportstoChinarepresentedlessthan1percentofthetotalin2009. IntermsofChinasimports , thestudypredictsasimilarevolution , oran evenmoreradicalone , giventhatChinacouldsurpassboththeEUandtheUSA in2020andbecomethemainoriginofLatinAmericanimports.Thegrowthin Chineseimportswillconcentrateonthesamecapitalgoodsthatalreadyhavea presenceintheregion.Thesechanges , predictedtotakeplaceinthenext decade , willcertainlyaltertherangeofoptionsavailableforconstructing triangularrelationseitherwiththeUSAortheEU , LatinAmericaandChina.
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China, the EU and Latin America : current issues and future cooperation
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