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China, the EU and Latin America : current issues and future cooperation
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62 China theEUandLatinAmerica:CurrentIssuesandFutureCooperation countrieswillhavethesameresultasitdidfortheEuropeans:itwillcement Chinasroleasamajorglobalpower.Afterall LatinAmericansandChinese sharemanymorethingsthanEuropeansandLatinAmericans:perhapsnotfrom thepointofviewoftraditionalcultureandvalues butasmembersoftheG5and G20 forexample.Theinternationaleconomiccrisiswillcertainlybealitmus testfortheserelationsandthecoincidenceofinterests.Nonetheless Chinahas totakebabystepsintermsofitsrelationswithLatinAmerica.Providingcash starvedgovernmentswithresourcesmaybeadoubleedgedsword. FromtheLatinAmericanperspective itwouldbeamistaketothinkthat ChinaisasubstituteforitsrelationswitheithertheUSAortheEU.Noneof theseactorscansubstituteforoneanother.Trueinterests andsomewould say valuestoo mustbeatthebasisofrelations beyondthesempiternalneed todiversify. Iffacts mustbetakenintoaccount itshouldbenotedthatChina will displaceEuropeand willbeclosebehindthe USA asadestinationofLatin Americanexportsinaboutadecade accordingtoarecentstudypublishedbythe UnitedNationsEconomicCommissionforLatin AmericaandtheCaribbean ECLAC ), ThePeoples RepublicofChinaand Latin Americaandthe Caribbean:TowardsaStrategicRelationship .Ifthecurrentgrowthrateof LatinAmericanexportstoitsmainmarketsismaintained Chinasparticipation willrisefrom7.6percentin2009to19.3percentin2020.Inthesameperiod theEUwillmaintainparticipationofaround14percentandwillbesurpassedby Chinain2015. Accordingtothisreport thegrowthofChinaasadestinationofLatin Americanexportswillbeachievedasaresultofthepersistentfallintheregions exportstotheUnitedStates from38.6percentofthetotalin2009to28.4per centin2020.TheECLACdoessay however thattheimportanceofChinaasan exportmarketvariesnotablyamongLatinAmericancountries giventhatitisa keydestinationforChile PeruandArgentina forexample butnotforCentral America withthenotableexceptionofCostaRica.InthecaseofMexico its exportstoChinarepresentedlessthan1percentofthetotalin2009. IntermsofChinasimports thestudypredictsasimilarevolution oran evenmoreradicalone giventhatChinacouldsurpassboththeEUandtheUSA in2020andbecomethemainoriginofLatinAmericanimports.Thegrowthin Chineseimportswillconcentrateonthesamecapitalgoodsthatalreadyhavea presenceintheregion.Thesechanges predictedtotakeplaceinthenext decade willcertainlyaltertherangeofoptionsavailableforconstructing triangularrelationseitherwiththeUSAortheEU LatinAmericaandChina.