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China, the EU and Latin America : current issues and future cooperation
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TradingwithGiants:IsTradePolicywiththeEUandChinaBeneficialtoMERCOSUR? 89 observablereality.Marketflawsaremuchmorethanexceptionstothegeneral rulesofeconomics and nationaleconomicpolicy decisions as wellasthe characteristicsofnationalinstitutionsaffecttheresultsofeconomicdecisionsina varietyofways.Withinthisframework theresultsautomaticallyexpectedfrom anintegrationprocessmaynotoccur.Furthermore eveninputativeperfectly competitivemarkets thedistributionofcostsandbenefitsduringanintegration processisnothomogeneous eitheramongparticipatingcountriesoramongthe variouseconomicplayers.Thepossibilityofcorrectingthissituationbymeansof interregionalcompensation policiescollides withtherealityofinstitutional constraintsandthelegitimateinterestsofthedifferentpressuregroupswithin thecountriesconcerned.Therefore conclusionsobtainedbypositiveeconomic analysisconflictwiththelimitationsofpoliticaleconomy. However thepositiveimpactpredictedbyneoclassicalmodelswithregardto economicgrowthandglobalexportsafterbilateralliberalisation donotspecifically accountforthecostsoftheadjustmentstobemadeinthelabourmarketandother factorscausedbychangesintheproductionstructuresandgeneratedbythenewtrade patternthatemergedfromliberalisation.Theseadjustmentcostswouldapplyaslong asinstitutionalandstructuralmarketrigiditiesexist. Thecomplexityoftheseprocessesandthemultiplicityofinterestsimplya needtointerpretdifficultiesandconflictsintermsofpoliticaleconomy.Inthis sense regionalintegrationgoesbeyondthemaximisationofpotentialgainsand amountstoastrategicprocessinwhichaspectsofpoliticaleconomyconcerning adjustmentcostsandthestructuraltransformationoftheeconomiesconcerned mustbetakenintoaccount.Amongthetensionslikelytoarise we might mentiontheadjustmentoflabourmarketsandpoliticallobbyingcarriedoutby sensitiveeconomicsectors whichfunctionasimportantpressuregroups. Tradebetween the EU and MERCOSUR shows patterns ofclassic comparativeadvantage italso hasa marked degree ofcomplementarity. Analysisofthecharacteristicsofproductionsectorsandtradewithinthetwo blocksshowsthatinsomeareastherearenoglobalcomparativeadvantages due toprotection withintheregionalmarket.Thatistosay thesearegoodsor sectorswhosetradehasdeviatedfromtherestoftheworldandwhoseinterest groups countriesandsectors perceivetheregionalmarketasparticularly important.Suchsectors togetherwithseveralsectorsthatsubstituteimports havestrategicimportanceingovernmentdevelopmentpoliciesandaresupported byimportantpoliticalandsocialgroups. Pressure lobby groupsconstitutedaroundthesesectorsareusuallysmall butwellorganisedandinformedandhavethecapacitytoinfluencepolitical