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China, the EU and Latin America : current issues and future cooperation
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62 China theEUandLatinAmerica:CurrentIssuesandFutureCooperation memberstatesgassupply .Similarly thereisariskofalackofinvestmentin exploration productionandtransportation despitereservesbeingabundantly availableinareassurroundingEurope forexample Mueller2007 Currentenergy scenariosshow thatareduction ofdependency on gas throughanincreaseindomesticproductionorthroughenergysavingsisnot credible.Thesituationisdifferentwithregardtothediversificationofexporting countries.Europespositionintheworldmarketcouldbemorefavourabledepending onwhether Africanand MiddleEasternexportsgrow substantially backedby significantvolumesofLiquefiedNaturalGas LNG .ThedevelopmentofLNGspot marketsisexpectedtoeasesomeconcernsaboutsecurityofsupply especiallyin terms of pipeline diplomacy due to its advantages of flexibility and diversification.Currently about10percentofEuropesgasimportsareinthe form of LNG.Thissharecould roughly double by 2020. However some drawbacksremain.BesidethefactthatLNGtechnologyissensitivetophysical threats exportershavenotkeptup withincreasingfacilitiesinimporting countries leadingtosomeregasificationterminalsstandingidle.Inaddition the EUisexpectedtofacefiercecompetitionfromotherimportingcountries suchas theUS Larsson2007 AnothercriticalfactoristransportcapacitytowardsEurope asitseems verylikelythatprojectedinfrastructure willnotbeableto meetexpected demand.Thisimpliestheneedtogainaccesstogasreserves toopenup producing areastointernationalinvestmentand to devote attention to the stabilityof transitcountries .Severalinfrastructureprojectsarecurrently beingplannedintheEU twoofwhichwillincreasethedependenceonRussian gasimports albeitreducingthetransitrisk andoneofwhich willdiversify importstowardstheCaspianregionandtheMiddleEast thatis theNabucco pipelineproject .Itshouldbenotedthatcurrentgasinfrastructureprojects bothpipelinesand LNG willdeterminefuturegreenhousegasemissions becausetheylockEuropeintoacarbonintensiveenergypatternwhichisnotin linewiththetargetedgreenhousegasemissionstoavoiddangerousclimate change.Withalifetimeof2050years andbeyond newlybuiltgaspipelines willincrease Europesdependenceon gasfurther rendering carbon neutral energysystemsby2050lesslikely. Inaddition thefuturecarbonpricewillhaveanimpactonthefutureofthe gasmarkets.Mostgascompanieshaveadjustedtheirgas marketgrowth expectationsdownwardsafterthefirstcarbon marketexperience duetothe competitionofgaswithcoalandnuclearforpowergeneration.However if naturalgasisunabletotakealargershareinpowergeneration itwillnotbe