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China, the EU and Latin America : current issues and future cooperation
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66 China theEUandLatinAmerica:CurrentIssuesandFutureCooperation facilitiesandtobuildnewplants Europesnucleargeneratingcapacityisinfact expectedtoshrinkratherthantogrow.Accordingly theIEAforecaststhat electricitygenerationfromnuclearwilldecreasefrom31percentto21percent by2020 IEA2008 .Themainreasonsforthepossiblestagnationanddeclineof nuclearpowergenerationarecostssuchasstartupcosts decommissioningand waste management.Moreover safety thelackofacommonapproachto European safety standards ), public opinion and perception waste and proliferation MIT2003 arealsoimportantreasons.Inaddition thenuclear powersectorsuffersfromanageingworkforceandageneralshortageofqualified labour aswellasfromashortageofkeycomponentsofthesupplychain. 6.犈狀犲狉犵狔犈犳犳犻犮犻犲狀犮狔 EnergyefficiencyhasbecomeacornerstoneoftheEuropeanCommissions energypolicy.TheEUhassetitselfanonbindingtargetofsaving20percentof energyconsumptionby2020throughenergyefficiency whichmaysaveupto EUR100billionandanestimated800milliontonnesofCO peryear European Commission2008 .Accordingtothe Commission Action Plan on Energy Efficiency European Commission 2006 ), thelargestcosteffectivesavings potentialsareinthehouseholdandtertiarysectors at27percentand30per cent respectively.Formanufacturingindustry theoverallpotentialisestimated tobearound25percent whilefortransportthefigureis26percent. Onaglobalscale improvingenergyefficiencywillalsoallowdeveloping countriestoreducethegrowthofenergydemandandgreenhousegasemissions aswellastosavecostsofenergyproduction.Arecentstudyby McKinsey 2009 showedthatsome65percentofglobalpositivereturnenergyefficiency opportunitiesareindevelopingcountries.Chinahasthelargestpotential 22per centofglobalopportunities ), followedbythe MiddleEast 10percent ), EasternEurope 10percent ), LatinAmerica 8percent andIndia 7per cent .TheworldspoorestcountriesinSoutheastAsiaand Africaareless attractivefromanenergyefficiencyperspective offeringonly5percentand4 percentofglobalopportunities respectively. Energyefficiencyachievedbyreducingdemandincreasestheflexibilityof thewholeenergychainandtherebyprovidesanadditionalmarginforsecurity. Putanother way iftheflexibility neededtocope withsupplyfailureisa proportionofoverallenergydemand thenthecostofprovidingaconstantlevel ofsecurity ofsupply decreasesifthe overallenergy demandisreduced EgenhoferandLegge2001 However therearesomedoubtsaboutthecorrelationbetweenincreasing