3 66 China , theEUandLatinAmerica:CurrentIssuesandFutureCooperation facilitiesandtobuildnewplants , Europesnucleargeneratingcapacityisinfact expectedtoshrinkratherthantogrow.Accordingly , theIEAforecaststhat electricitygenerationfromnuclearwilldecreasefrom31percentto21percent by2020 ( IEA2008 ) .Themainreasonsforthepossiblestagnationanddeclineof nuclearpowergenerationarecostssuchasstartupcosts , decommissioningand waste management.Moreover , safety ( thelackofacommonapproachto European safety standards ), public opinion and perception , waste and proliferation ( MIT2003 ) arealsoimportantreasons.Inaddition , thenuclear powersectorsuffersfromanageingworkforceandageneralshortageofqualified labour , aswellasfromashortageofkeycomponentsofthesupplychain. 6.犈狀犲狉犵狔犈犳犳犻犮犻犲狀犮狔 EnergyefficiencyhasbecomeacornerstoneoftheEuropeanCommissions energypolicy.TheEUhassetitselfanonbindingtargetofsaving20percentof energyconsumptionby2020throughenergyefficiency , whichmaysaveupto EUR100billionandanestimated800milliontonnesofCO 2 peryear ( European Commission2008 ) .Accordingtothe Commission Action Plan on Energy Efficiency ( European Commission 2006 ), thelargestcosteffectivesavings potentialsareinthehouseholdandtertiarysectors , at27percentand30per cent , respectively.Formanufacturingindustry , theoverallpotentialisestimated tobearound25percent , whilefortransportthefigureis26percent. Onaglobalscale , improvingenergyefficiencywillalsoallowdeveloping countriestoreducethegrowthofenergydemandandgreenhousegasemissions , aswellastosavecostsofenergyproduction.Arecentstudyby McKinsey ( 2009 ) showedthatsome65percentofglobalpositivereturnenergyefficiency opportunitiesareindevelopingcountries.Chinahasthelargestpotential ( 22per centofglobalopportunities ), followedbythe MiddleEast ( 10percent ), EasternEurope ( 10percent ), LatinAmerica ( 8percent ) andIndia ( 7per cent ) .TheworldspoorestcountriesinSoutheastAsiaand Africaareless attractivefromanenergyefficiencyperspective , offeringonly5percentand4 percentofglobalopportunities , respectively. Energyefficiencyachievedbyreducingdemandincreasestheflexibilityof thewholeenergychainandtherebyprovidesanadditionalmarginforsecurity. Putanother way , iftheflexibility neededtocope withsupplyfailureisa proportionofoverallenergydemand , thenthecostofprovidingaconstantlevel ofsecurity ofsupply decreasesifthe overallenergy demandisreduced ( EgenhoferandLegge2001 ) . However , therearesomedoubtsaboutthecorrelationbetweenincreasing
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