TheRelationshipbetweenClimateChangePoliciesandEnergySecurity EuropeandBeyond 3 67 energyefficiencyandreducingimportdependency , atleastinEurope.TheIEA ( 2008 ) reportsthatEuropesenergyefficiencyhasconsistentlyimprovedover time:from1 , 200MillionTonnesofOilEquivalent ( Mtoe ) ofNegajoules ( that is , avoidedenergyconsumptionthroughenergysavings ) in1970 , to2 , 000Mtoe in1990and2 , 800Mtoein2005.However , thisimprovementhasnottranslated intoa paralleldownwardtrendfor Europestotalprimary energyimports: Europesimportdependencegrewfrom42percentin1990to52percentin2005 ( IEA2008 ) .Accordingly , evenassumingthefullapplicationoftheexistingEU directivesonenergyefficiency , importdependencyisprojectedtoincreasefrom 47.2percentin2000to65.5percentin2030.Withenergydemanddecreasing fasterthanEUdomesticenergyproduction , importdependencein2010and2020 willbeslightlylowerthanin2000.Inthelongterm ( thatis , until2030 ), the reductionindemandforelectricityproducedfromnuclearandindigenoussolid fuelswillleadtolowerexploitationofEuropeanenergysources , which more thancounterbalancesthedeclineinprimaryenergyconsumption.Asaresult , importdependenceinthe “ energyefficiencycase ” in2030maybeslightlyhigher thaninthebaseline ( EuropeanCommission2006 ) . Theabsenceofastrongcorrelationbetweenenergyefficiency , ontheonehand , energyimportsandsecurityofsupply , ontheother , hasseveral — complementary — explanations.TheprogressiveexhaustionofEuropesindigenousresources — especially oilandgas — isone.Second , thereisthesocalled “ reboundeffect ” .Improvementsin energyefficiencymakeenergyservices ( forexample , heatormobility ) cheaper , thus encouragingtheirfurtheruse.Thiscanresultinanoverallincreaseinenergy consumption , despitetheinitialdemandreduction.Thereboundeffectisverydifficultto measureanditcanhavedifferentimpactsindifferentsectorsbut , generallyspeaking , its impacthassofarbeenunderestimated.Inindustrialisedcountries , foranyincreasein energyefficiencythereisareboundeffectofatleast10percent ( uptoover50percent ) . Thismeansthattheactualreductioninenergyconsumptionisequaltoonlyacertain percentageoftheexpectedenergysaving ( UKEnergyResearchCentre2007 ) . Energyefficiency measures are one ofthe key areas forimproved internationalcooperation.Thestrongprojectedgrowthofenergydemandin developingandtransitioncountriesisexpectedtoleveloffanypossibleenergy efficiencyimprovementintheEU , bothfromthesecurityofsupplyandtheCO 2 emissionsperspectives ( EgenhoferandLegge2001 ) .WhileEuropesprimary energydemandisexpectedtoincreaseby4.5percentbetween2006and2030 , thebiggestemergingconsumercountryintheworld , namelyChina , willregister agrowthofmorethan100percent ( IEA2008 ) .ThismeansthatiftheEUwas abletosave20percentofenergyconsumption , Chinaalonewouldmakeupfor
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