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China, the EU and Latin America : current issues and future cooperation
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TheRelationshipbetweenClimateChangePoliciesandEnergySecurity EuropeandBeyond 67 energyefficiencyandreducingimportdependency atleastinEurope.TheIEA 2008 reportsthatEuropesenergyefficiencyhasconsistentlyimprovedover time:from1 200MillionTonnesofOilEquivalent Mtoe ofNegajoules that is avoidedenergyconsumptionthroughenergysavings in1970 to2 000Mtoe in1990and2 800Mtoein2005.However thisimprovementhasnottranslated intoa paralleldownwardtrendfor Europestotalprimary energyimports: Europesimportdependencegrewfrom42percentin1990to52percentin2005 IEA2008 .Accordingly evenassumingthefullapplicationoftheexistingEU directivesonenergyefficiency importdependencyisprojectedtoincreasefrom 47.2percentin2000to65.5percentin2030.Withenergydemanddecreasing fasterthanEUdomesticenergyproduction importdependencein2010and2020 willbeslightlylowerthanin2000.Inthelongterm thatis until2030 ), the reductionindemandforelectricityproducedfromnuclearandindigenoussolid fuelswillleadtolowerexploitationofEuropeanenergysources which more thancounterbalancesthedeclineinprimaryenergyconsumption.Asaresult importdependenceinthe energyefficiencycase in2030maybeslightlyhigher thaninthebaseline EuropeanCommission2006 Theabsenceofastrongcorrelationbetweenenergyefficiency ontheonehand energyimportsandsecurityofsupply ontheother hasseveral complementary explanations.TheprogressiveexhaustionofEuropesindigenousresources especially oilandgas isone.Second thereisthesocalled reboundeffect .Improvementsin energyefficiencymakeenergyservices forexample heatormobility cheaper thus encouragingtheirfurtheruse.Thiscanresultinanoverallincreaseinenergy consumption despitetheinitialdemandreduction.Thereboundeffectisverydifficultto measureanditcanhavedifferentimpactsindifferentsectorsbut generallyspeaking its impacthassofarbeenunderestimated.Inindustrialisedcountries foranyincreasein energyefficiencythereisareboundeffectofatleast10percent uptoover50percent Thismeansthattheactualreductioninenergyconsumptionisequaltoonlyacertain percentageoftheexpectedenergysaving UKEnergyResearchCentre2007 Energyefficiency measures are one ofthe key areas forimproved internationalcooperation.Thestrongprojectedgrowthofenergydemandin developingandtransitioncountriesisexpectedtoleveloffanypossibleenergy efficiencyimprovementintheEU bothfromthesecurityofsupplyandtheCO emissionsperspectives EgenhoferandLegge2001 .WhileEuropesprimary energydemandisexpectedtoincreaseby4.5percentbetween2006and2030 thebiggestemergingconsumercountryintheworld namelyChina willregister agrowthofmorethan100percent IEA2008 .ThismeansthatiftheEUwas abletosave20percentofenergyconsumption Chinaalonewouldmakeupfor