Methodical Guidelines for Peace and Conflict Impact Assessment 27 Key questions for the formulation of impact hypotheses and relations NK= eçï=ÇçÉë=íÜÉ=ëíê~íÉÖáÅ=çÄàÉÅíáîÉ=ÅçåíêáÄìíÉ=íç=íÜÉ=íê~åëÑçêã~íáçå=çÑ=íÜÉ=ÅçåÑäáÅí=ëáíì~íáçå\= OK= eçï=ÇçÉë=íÜÉ=éêçàÉÅí=~áã=ÅçåíêáÄìíÉ=íç=~ÅÜáÉîáåÖ=íÜÉ=ëíê~íÉÖáÅ=çÄàÉÅíáîÉ\= PK= eçï=ÇçÉë=~=Öêçìé=çÑ=~ÅíáîáíáÉë=ÅçåíêáÄìíÉ=íç=íÜÉ=éêçàÉÅí=~áã\= QK= tÜáÅÜ=~Åíçêë=~êÉ=áåîçäîÉÇ=áå=íÜáë=éêçÅÉëë\= RK= tÜ~í=ëíÉéë=ÇçÉë=íÜÉ=ëíê~íÉÖó=áåÅçêéçê~íÉ\== SK= tÜ~í=áë=íÜÉ=íáãÉ=Üçêáòçå\= TK= tÜ~í=ÉåÜ~åÅáåÖ=Ñ~Åíçêë=Å~å=ÄÉ=~åíáÅáé~íÉÇ=~åÇ=Üçï=Å~å=íÜÉó=ÄÉ=áåÑäìÉåÅÉÇ\= UK= tÜáÅÜ=Ñ~Åíçêë=ã~ó=ÜáåÇÉê=íÜÉ=áãéäÉãÉåí~íáçå=çÑ=~ÅíáîáíáÉë=E“êáëâëÒF\= 9. tÜáÅÜ=ìåáåíÉåÇÉÇ=áãé~Åíë=ã~ó=çÅÅìê=~ÑíÉê=íÜÉ=áãéäÉãÉåí~íáçå=çÑ=~ÅíáîáíáÉë\ Ideally, impact hypotheses and relations will be developed individually by the project staff involved and then coordinated in joint discussions. This procedure ensures that consideration is given to the entire range of views within the project team. Of crucial significance here is the definition of the time frame on which the determination of the short, medium and long-term impacts is based. This is country-specific and should comply with the logic and time frame of the respective“Kursbogen”(track sheet). The anticipated impact steps depend on the presence of various external factors or on basic assumptions that form the foundation of the planning. Should these basic assumptions be incorrect, the activities will in all likelihood come to nothing. In the risk and impact assessment, therefore, each step in the impact relations must be compared with the matching assumptions. Moreover, each activity influences the social and political dynamics of a conflict situation and may produce impacts that were unintended or not planned at least. A tailor-made analysis tool can be of help in anticipating such unintended impacts at various levels and ensuring that due consideration is paid to them at the project planning stage( Annex 18) The results of this analysis must likewise be entered in the planning grid( Annex 15) and they subsequently play a part in the development of the indicators. Step 4: Deriving impact indicators Impact indicators are formulated on the basis of impact relations. They pave the way for the review and specification of the project objectives. They should therefore be capable of monitoring changes. Changes may occur in attitude, behaviour and the political context. All three levels, a) attitude, b) behaviour and c) the political context/situation, are generally mutually dependent. Reference is therefore made to the A ttitude B ehaviour C ontext triangle(see diagram below) 3 . Since experience has shown that it is not possible to define a single indicator encompassing all three areas, it is recommended that indicators be worked out for each individual area of the A ttitude B ehaviour C ontext triangle so that changes in all three areas can be recorded ( Annex 18). 3 John Galtung originally introduced the triangle. It has been adapted by Responding to Conflict(RTC):“Working with Conflict: Skills and Strategies for Action”.