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Austerity vs. efficiency : how recovery drives distorted the labor market mechanisms in Bulgaria
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Preliminary estimates of the IMF show that the recovery of the economy was discontinued in 2011; and, most probably, in 2012, and even in 2013, the nega­tive trend will be preserved. This forecast was con rmed in spring 2012 by the Eu­ropean Commission. International experts specify that, if there is some economic growth, it will be insigni cant, and tending to 0% on an annual basis. The economy of Bulgaria received someshocks at the initial stage of the crisis and its proliferation, and the economy is expected to have a longer down­turn in time with a growth close to zero, or at zero level, without any indications for positive near-future growth. Restructuring of the labor markets is wrongfully applied. Austerity policies produce imaginary stability, which has a procyclical effect, inevitably. The crisis in Bulgaria will be a long-term one, and it will also be stronger, as the country is de-industrialized and does not own any more national highly com­petitive industrial and trade capital; in addition, the foreign capital in the industry sector is rather incidental, while in the trade sector it is speculative by nature to a great extent, or the trade pro ts are exported abroad. September 2012