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Leading issues in the economy of Pakistan : agenda for reforms
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Economic Performance of Three Governments Table 1.2 reveals that the number of attacks grew rapidly and reached a peak in 2010-11. It was only after the attack on the Army Public School that a National Action Plan against terrorism was prepared during the tenure of the PML(N) Government in 2015-16. This led to the launch of Zarb-e-Azb operation by the armed forces, especially in FATA. Thereafter, there has been a big decline in the incidence of terrorism. The rampant acts of terrorism imposed both indirect and indirect costs on the economy of a large magnitude. The direct costs include the damage to property and loss of lives. The indirect costs consist of fall in investment due to heightened risk perceptions, negative movement in share prices, increase in expenditure of the armed forces, and in higher costs for maintaining law and order. The Ministry of Finance has estimated in the Pakistan Economic Survey of 2013-14 that the total cost cumulatively of the war on terror from 2001-02 to 2013-14 was as high as $102.5 billion. The peak of these costs was in 2008-09 and 2009-10 of$13.6 billion and $23.8 billion respectively. The path of acts of terror and the resulting costs indicate that the largest burden of these costs has been during the tenure of the PPP government. Costs were also high in the initial three years of the PML(N) government, but much lower thereafter following the successful anti-terrorism operation by the military. Fortunately, the PTI government has largely not been hampered by terrorism. However, there are more attacks now, especially in Baluchistan and in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa. The magnitude of this negative factor must be kept in mind when evaluating the performance of different governments. The other big constraining factor impacting on the economy has been the incidence of power loadshedding. Table 1.3 indicates the growth rate in the level of installed capacity and in the quantum of generation of electricity. Table 1.3: Growth in Installed Capacity and Generation of Electricity Average Annual Growth Rate (%) Installed Capacity Generation 2003-04 to 2007-08 0.1 4.2 2008-09 to 2012-13 3.2 0.1 2013-14 to 2017-18 7.7 6.2 2018-19 to 2021-22 5.7 5.9 Source: Pakistan Economic Survey. The Musharraf period witnessed hardly any expansion in electricity generation capacity, but the rate of utilization of available capacity reached a peak level by 2007-08. Consequently, there was little excess capacity in the initial years of the PPP government. In the last three years there was a modest expansion in capacity. The incidence of power loadshedding reached a peak in 2008-09. It is estimated that this resulted in a loss annually of almost 2 percent of the GDP. 5