The Economic Outlook for 2022-23 Overall, the balance of payments is projected to be in surplus of$3.6 billion. The net inflow from the IMF in 2022-23 is estimated at$2.8 billion. Consequently, reserves are expected to rise to$16.2 billion by the end of the year and reach a‘safe’ level. Table 4.6: IMF Projections for 2022-23 A. CURRENT ACCOUNT Goods Balance Exports Imports Services Balance Net Primary Income Net Secondary Income Workers’ Remittances B. CAPITAL ACCOUNT C. FINANCIAL ACCOUNT Foreign Investment General Government Disbursements Amortization Others D. ERRORS& OMISSIONS E. BALANCE OF PAYMENTS IMF+ Others F. CHANGE IN RESERVES Source: IMF 2021-22 (Actual) -17,461 -40,140 31,877 72,017 -3,691 -5,288 31,658 30,117 208 10,355 2,996 6,074 14,362 8,288 1,285 -608 -7,506 36 -7,469 2022-23 -9,280 -32,856 35,900 68,756 -3,507 -4,763 31,846 28,958 161 12,682 5,376 7,062 19,476 12,414 244 0 3,563 2,842 6,405 g(%) -46.9 -18.1 12.6 -4.5 -5.0 -10.0 0.6 -4.0 -22.6 22.5 79.4 16.3 35.6 49.8 The IMFs projections are based on optimistic assumptions about capital inflows, both debt­creating and non-debt creating in nature. For example, in the presence of the IMF Program the gross disbursements of loans to Pakistan by will increase by 46 percent. It remains to be seen if this will happen. The first indications are of a large and growing shortfall. Impact of Floods The floods are likely to impact on the balance of payments of Pakistan in the following ways: i) Exports of rice will be reduced by almost 1 million tons, implying a loss in export earn ­ings of$500 million. 53