Number of Poor (million) Number of unemployed (million) Leading Issues in the Economy of Pakistan: Agenda for Reforms Figure 13.3: Estimated Number of the Unemployed and the Poor Source: Diverse and LFS A similar outcome is likely to be observed in 2022-23. Currently, in the first five months food prices are rising by as much as 35 percent while the rise in the CPI is 25 percent. Along with a 1 percent decline increase in the GDP, there is the likelihood in 2022-23 of an extraordinarily large increase in the size of the poor population by over 22 million, the largest increase ever. It must be kept in mind that 33 million people were badly affected by the floods. Consequently, the projection is that the incidence of poverty will rise almost 45 percent in 2022-23 . This is in comparison to the incidence in 2017-18 of 32 percent. Effectively the country will see the same high level of poverty as existed at the start of this century. The tragedy is that as highlighted earlier this has happened after the floods when the Federal and Provincial Governments are unable to undertake larger pro-poor expenditures in the face of severe financial constraints. The time has come for substantially raising of direct tax revenues by withdrawals of the large number of concessions, exemptions and by raising tax rates on the upper most income households in Pakistan. The revenues generated should be used for larger and wider coverage of cash transfers under the BISP. Mechanisms will also need to be devised for subsidizing food prices and for an expanded program for training and employment of youth in the country. Fortunately, the Geneva Conference in January 23 has led to commitment of$9.7 billion by Multilateral agencies and bilateral sources over the next three years. 132