Leading Issues in the Economy of Pakistan: Agenda for Reforms Table 18.2: Annual Plan Projections and Actuals 2018-19 Plan Projection Actual Divergence Plan Projection GDP Growth Rate (%) 6.2 3.1-3.1 4.8 Total Investment (% of GDP) 17.2 15.1-2.1 16.0 Rate of Inflation (%) 6.0 6.8 0.8 8.0 Budget Deficit (% of GDP) -4.9-7.9-3.0-6.0 Current Account Deficit -13.4-13.4 0.0-2.7 ($ billion) 2021-22 Actual Divergence 6.0 1.2 15.1-0.9 12.2 4.2 -7.9-1.9 -17.4-14.7 All Plans should include a clear statement of risks associated with the achievement of any macroeconomic target. The National Economic Council, a constitutional body chaired by the Prime Minister, should meet quarterly to review and suggest policy changes to facilitate achievement of the targets. The Planning Commission should act as the Secretariat to the Council. 18.4 Strengthening the Statistics There is need to improve the quality and coverage of statistics to improve the responsiveness of economic governance institutions to challenges, crises and opportunities. The following proposals are given below for strengthening the information base for policy decisions: i) Quarterly GDP statistics : The construction of a quarterly GDP series is vital for facilitat ing timely actions. A first abortive attempt was made earlier by the PBS. India has had quarterly GDP series for a long time. The key is that the link should be established with the Rabi and Kharif cycles of agriculture, as this sector impacts directly or indirectly an almost half the economy. Fortunately, quarterly time series that are available for a large number of economic activities, including large-scale manufacturing, construction activity, generation and distribution of electricity and gas, consumption of fuel, banking transactions, govern ment expenditure, etc. ii) Provincial Gross Regional Product Estimates : The Provincial Bureaus of Statistics must develop the capacity for annual estimates of the GRPs of their respective provinces. This will constitute a key data base for provincial planning. India also been producing 188
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Leading issues in the economy of Pakistan : agenda for reforms
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