Overstatement of the GDP Growth Rate In 2021-22 Annexure-3: Overstatement of the GDP Growth Rate in 2021-22 The objective of this statistical note is to highlight that there is a likelihood that the preliminary GDP growth rate estimate for 2021-22 by the PBS is overstated at 5.97 percent. The sectors where the growth rate is probably overstated are identified below along with the collateral evidence as to why there is overestimation of the growth rate. Major Crops A comparison is made in Table S-3.1 between the crop-wise growth rates as reported in the Pakistan Economic Survey and the growth rates given in the July 2022 publication of World Agricultural Production of the US Department of Agriculture for Pakistan. Table S-3.1: Growth Rate of Output of Major Crops in 2021-22 (%) Weight (%) Pakistan Economic Survey USDA Wheat 40.1-3.9-3.9 Maize 16.4 18.9 6.3 Rice 12.1 10.7 3.3 Cotton 12.6 17.9 17.9 Sugarcane 18.8 9.4 9.4* TOTAL 100.0 7.2 3.9 *Output of sugarcane by country not included in the USDA report. It appears that the growth in output of maize and rice has been significantly overstated in the Pakistan Economic Survey. Overall, the growth rate of the major crop sector is likely to be significantly lower. This is not surprising given some reduction in the availability of water and a big decline in fertilizer use, especially of phosphate. Minor Crops The growth rate of the minor crop sector in 2021-22 has been reported at 5.4 percent. However, as shown in Table S-3.2, there has been much higher inflation last year in the prices of vegetables and fruits. This indicates the presence of significant supply shortages. Therefore, the relatively high growth rate of 5.4 percent is unlikely. 199