Overstatement of the GDP Growth Rate In 2021-22 Electricity, Gas and Water Supply This sector is shown as having achieved a high growth rate of 7.9 percent in 2021-22. The fundamental problem is that there is an extraordinarily large increase in circular debt during the year to Rs 850 billion, compared to Rs 130 billion in 2020-21. This is bound to have drastically reduced the value-added by the sector in 2021-22, and to a big fall in the growth rate. Construction The prime determinant of the growth in the sector is the magnitude of increase in the input of cement. According to the PBS, there has actually been a small decline in the consumption of cement within Pakistan in 2021-22. As such, the reported growth rate of 3.1 percent ins highly unlikely. Wholesale and Retail Trade This is a relatively large sector. It is shown as having achieved double-digit growth rate of above 10 percent both in 2020-21 and 2021-22. However, application of the standard methodology for growth rate estimation in Table S-3.5 reveals that the growth rate is closer to 8.5 percent. Table S-3.5: Contribution of Trading in Different Types of Goods to Wholesale and Retail Trade Weight in Value­Added Growth Rate (%) Contribution Crops 11.8 4.0 0.47 Livestock 9.1 3.3 0.30 Large-Scale Manufacturing 52.7 7.5 3.95 Small-Scale Manufacturing 5.7 8.9 0.51 Imports 20.7 15.6 3.22 TOTAL 100.0 8.45 GDP Overall, the estimated growth rate of the GDP is likely to be closer to 4.8 percent, as shown in Table S-3.6. This is significantly lower than the reported growth of almost 6 percent by the PBS. 201