the equilibrium may be manageable but it will soon become unmanageable and will tend to strangle itself.”(Piñera, 1992) Aging adversely impacts long-term sustainability of public systems, but will not affect private systems due to their design and full funding(Puyol, 2017). b. Reality Declining Trend in Contributing Affiliates Table 15 shows the percentage of affiliates that contributed in 1999-2019, denot ing the zenith reached in bold. This percentage decreased in all countries after the zenith, while—based on the first year available—it also declined or stag nated, except in Chile(the abnormality of the Panamanian case has already been mentioned). The worst falls occurred in El Salvador: from 64% to 22% (42 percentage points) and in Mexico: from 60% to 32%(19 percentage points) (Figure 4). 61 Therefore, it is obvious that the ownership of the individual account, the principle of equivalence, and the private administration have not been incentives for the contribution 62 and that there were other reasons: the insured exit from the labor force or switching from the formal to the informal sector, employer evasion and payment delays, campaigns by administrators to affiliate newcomers into the labor market, and the fact that only by registering and paying one contribution individuals are shown as affiliates, even if they do not pay later. Therefore, there is a very significant overestimation of affiliates, thus, the 2019 EAP coverage based on affiliates and contributors in the private system, were respectively: 114% and 24% in El Salvador; 114% and 36% in Mexico; and 112% and 62% in Chile and Costa Rica(AIOS, 2020). Employers’ Evasion, Payment Delays and Avoidance or Under-declaration of Income Evasion, whether in private or public systems, occurs when the employer does not register all or part of its employees in order to avoid paying pension 61 Lima Chamber of Commerce revealed that 75% of workers under 25 years of age do not contribute. 62 This was recognized by the WB/OECD team(Gill, Packard, and Yermo, 2005). 92
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Evaluation of four decades of pension privatization in Latin America, 1980-2000 : promises and reality
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