decrease by 0.2% in 2050-2060. The productive cohort of the population(ages 16-59)—which was 63.8% in 2019—will drop to 52.1% in 2060, while the elderly population cohort(60 years and over) will grow from 13.8% to 32.2% hence the ratio of active workers per one pensioner will contract from 4.6 to 1.6 within the same period. Finally, the life expectancy at the age of 65 will grow by six years for men(from 13 to 19 in 2000-2060) and by eight years for women(from 15 to 23). These trends“will imply radical transformations in the actuarial aspect of social security… because of the increase in expenses for benefits and of the reduction in revenue”(SEPT, 2020a: 4). 2. The 2019 Parametric Reform The pension system was quite generous but the parametric reforms implemented during the governments of Fernando Henrique Cardozo in 1998 in the RGPS, and of Luis Ignacio Lula da Silva in 2003 in the RPPS introduced limitations, although they were less than those of the original proposals due to strong opposition in congress(Kakahodo and Savoia, 2008). On February 20, 2019, the newly elected neoliberal president Jair Bolsonaro submitted to Congress a pension reform bill that included a constitutional amendment. Its main goal was to reduce the fiscal cost of the pension system related to the commitments made by the 2016 tax reform, through the restriction of entitlement conditions and benefits in the RGPS and the RPPS. The proposal led to strong opposition from social organizations and from Congress as it restricted entitlement conditions and the amount of pensions. There was no broad social dialogue in a highly polarized climate(ECLAC, 2018). The reform bill passed the two rounds of voting in the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate, with significant amendments, but was approved by Congress at the end of October and became law on November 12, 2019. It came into effect in March 2020(SEPT, 2019). An important change is that now it is easier to make constitutional amendments on pensions, especially in the civil servant system(RPPS), now regulated by a special code. The amendments in the entitlement conditions, 171
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Evaluation of four decades of pension privatization in Latin America, 1980-2000 : promises and reality
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