Economic Trends and Targets Chapter 1: Economic Trends and Targets The objective of this chapter is to highlight first the trends over the last five years in the key macroeconomic variables of the economy of Pakistan. This will identify the major structural problems which will need to be addressed in the Charter of the Economy. Attainable targets following removal of constraints are set in the second section. 1.1. Economic Trends GDP Growth The average GDP growth between 2014-15 and 2019-20 has been only 3.4 percent. It rises to 4.3 percent if the year, 2019-20, is excluded because of the large negative impact of COVID-19. It is only in 2017-18 when there was relatively high growth of 5.5 percent, as shown in Table 1.1. Pakistan had been successful in achieving 6 percent or more GDP growth rate in the decades of 60s, 80s and for some years in the first decade of this century. If Pakistan is to achieve the status of a well-performing emerging economy and simultaneously reduce unemployment and poverty, then the GDP growth rate will have to be restored to 6 percent or more in coming years. Table 1.1: Key Macroeconomic Indicators of the Economy, 2015-16 to 2020-21 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 GDP Growth Rate(%) 4.6 5.2 5.5 2.1-0.5 Agriculture 0.2 2.2 4.0 0.6 3.3 Manufacturing 5.6 4.5 4.6-0.7-7.4 Services 5.7 6.5 6.3 3.8-0.6 Level of Fixed Investment 14.1 14.6 15.7 14.0 13.7 (% of GDP) Public Investment 3.8 4.5 5.2 3.6 3.2 Private Investment 10.3 10.1 10.5 10.4 10.6 Level of Savings(% of GDP) 13.9 12.0 11.3 10.8 13.6 Employment( million) 57.42 59.35 61.71 62.41 60.46 2020-21 3.9 2.8 8.7 4.4 13.6 3.8 9.8 15.3 61.90 3