Riga Creating an effective deterrent against Russia in Europe: military and non-military aspects of deterrence TOMS ROSTOKS, NORA VANAGA November 2018 „ Deterrence is formed and reinforced by various elements, some of which are military and others non-mil­itary. The most important of those, the ones that help to provide peace and stability in the Baltic Sea region, are Russia’s relatively low-level interest in the Baltic countries, the efforts by the Baltic countries and Po­land to develop their self-defence capability, the collective efforts by NATO to provide military presence in this region, and the lack of clarity regarding Russia’s ability to control the escalation of the potential con­fl ict. This last element of deterrence seems to deserve to be explored in some depth since, for the moment, its impact on Russian behaviour has not been given its due. „ The NATO collective deterrence strategy is fully defensive and can largely be interpreted as defence by denial, while the deterrence strategies of individual countries of the Baltic Sea region also include ele­ments of deterrence by punishment. Such a choice is not easy, therefore the inclusion of deterrence by punishment elements in deterrence strategies are an indication that some countries do not fully trust the deterrence by denial strategy and think that it is necessary to supplement it with offensive elements. „ The ability of countries to co-operate within one region has played a decisive role in providing for a larger presence of NATO in the Baltic Sea region, whereas the attempts by Romania to enlarge the presence of NATO in the Black Sea region have been for the most part unsuccessful, for there are sharp differences between the attitudes and priorities of the countries of this region. „ The potential of arms control as an element that would supplement the deterrent strategy has not been fully used. The Baltic countries and Poland understandably see the current situation as an historic oppor­tunity to secure the presence of NATO in their territories, therefore they are unwilling to review the possi­bility of guaranteeing peace and stability in the region with the help of arms control mechanisms. Although this attitude is understandable, it would be desirable in the long term to supplement the current deterrence efforts with other mechanisms and involve Russia if the opportunity arose.