RecalibratingConventionalWisdom: Romania-IMFrelationsunderscrutiny CornelBan(BostonUniversity)IDanielaGabor(UWEBristol) December2014 TheIMFandthecentralbank(BNR)sharethesamenarrativeof macroeconomicdevelopmentsinRomania:thatBNRcontrolsmonetary (andtosomeextentfinancial)conditionsthroughitsinflation-targeting regime.ThisnarrativeenablestheIMFtoconstructbalanceofpayment crisesascrisesofstateinterventionintheeconomyandtheBNRtodeny responsibilityforeconomiccrises. Thesamenarrativesuggeststhatwhilethetransnationalvulnerabilitiesofthe Romanianmarketmodelshouldbereduced,theorderlytransitiontoalocal bankingmodelshouldbeachievedbymarketmeansratherthanviaregulatory interventions. Byusingliquiditymanagementinstrumentstomanagecapitalflows,andnotfor inflationtargeting,thecentralbankisnotincompliancewiththeIMF’sviews. Whilerecognizingtheshortcomingsofthecentralbank’spolicyframework,the IMFisreluctanttopushforchangebecauseimprovementswouldrequirearadicalre-thinkoftheroleandactivitiesofforeignbanksinRomania. Onfiscalpolicy,RomaniangovernmentshavenotmadethemostoftheIMF’s doctrinaltransformation. TheFund’sresearchandofficialdoctrineontaxationandexpenditurepolicy allowforafairerdistributionofthecostsoffiscalconsolidationthatthe2010 loanprogramwithRomaniasuggests.
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Recalibrating conventional wisdom : Romania-IMF relations under scrutiny
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