BRAIN DRAIN – BRAIN GAIN: Latvia 53 6 LATVIA: PERMANENT DEPARTURE Aldis Austers, Latvian Institute of International Affairs 6.1 SCALE OF EMIGRATION FROM LATVIA According to data from the Central Statistical Bureau of Lat­via, from 2000 until 2014 around 332,000 people emigrated from Latvia, while 94,000 immigrated. Net migration has thus left Latvia with a deficit of 248,000 people, which corre­sponds to more than 12 per cent of the Latvian population. Emigration was considerable even before Latvia joined the European Union(EU) in 2004, but after accession, as we shall show, the destination countries and patterns of emigration changed. 6.2 WHO EMIGRATES? According to seminal research by Hazans(2011) on recent Latvian emigration, its patterns have changed. There were three emigration waves between 2000 and 2004. The first wave of around 50,000 people took place in 2000–2003; it had wide geographic dispersion and was dominated by highly educated and entrepreneurial people. The second wave happened after Latvia’s accession to the EU, involved 70,000 people and was concentrated on Ireland, the United Kingdom and Sweden. This wave had a larger share of people with lower educational attainment, as the costs of emigration had diminished substantially compared with the pre-accession period. The third wave was linked to the economic crisis in Latvia in 2008–2010 and high unemployment(above 30 per cent among low-skilled workers in 2009). Today, emigration continues, albeit at a much lower rate than in 2008 and 2009. In contrast to earlier emigrations, the emigrants of 2008 and later years have been dominated by highly skilled workers, have a manifest tendency to leave Latvia forever and depart together with their families(Hazans 2011). Given this scale of emigration, Latvia’s economic develop­ment is under serious risk. 6.3 COMPOSITION OF EMIGRANTS A substantial part of those who have emigrated from Latvia are people under the age of 35. In fact, three-quarters were under 35 years of age at the point of departure. According to the Labour Force Survey, 19 per cent of Lat­vians employed abroad have a tertiary education and 12 per cent only a basic education; 69 per cent – the majority – have a secondary education. According to Hazans(2013), each successive wave of emigration had a different share of people with a tertiary education, although in all waves it was above 20 per cent. Thus, in the 2000–2003 wave it was 32 per cent, in 2004–2008 21.5 per cent and in 2009–2010 27 per cent. Altogether, on average, in 2000–2010 24.2 of emigrants had a tertiary education. Table 1 International long-term emigration by country group, Latvia(number of people) TOTAL EU28 EU15 EU candidate countries EFTA other countries CIS 2004 20,167 11,898 11,025 18 498 7,753 5,930 2005 17,643 12,993 12,408 27 536 4,087 2,860 2006 17,019 11,604 11,029 14 422 4,979 3,948 2007 15,463 9,790 9,244 18 529 5,126 4,018 2008 27,045 19,154 18,250 64 1,047 6,780 5,083 2009 38,208 29,283 27,757 68 1,393 7,464 5,224 2010 39,651 30,417 28,609 81 1,406 7,747 4,911 2011 30,311 23,810 23,025 19 2,191 4,291 3,758 2012 25,163 19,087 18,395 30 1,741 4,305 3,698 2013 22,561 16,503 15,655 55 1,396 4,607 3,741