The European Union as a global player José Enrique de Ayala Clearly, the COVID-19 pandemic is going to have certain geopolitical repercussions, either consolidating or accentuating pre-existing trends or slowing or counteracting others. In some cases it will be a temporary phenomenon, but in others it may well be more enduring. The necessary isolation measures, the competition for scarce and indispensable resources for treating the sickness, the slow or inadequate response on the part of international authorities have all prompted a certain withdrawal into national positions at a time when globalisation had reached a considerable degree of development, but was already being called into question by some social or cultural sectors. Certain analysts believe we are at a watershed moment that will send globalisation into retreat in favour of greater protectionism and isolation that were already emerging before the crisis in some countries such as the United States. Yet it will be difficult for this trend to catch on beyond temporary trade wars since cultural, communications, economic, social, and political globalisation is inevitable and unstoppable. What the pandemic has shown is that the institutions of global governance we have at our disposal(the United Nations, Breton Woods) are neither sufficient nor suited to managing global crises, or for laying down and applying universal rules. Their reform is a challenge for us all in the years ahead. The decline of US leadership, which began when President Donald Trump first broadcast his message of national egoism, has only intensified during the health crisis, both because of the utter absence of support for other countries and organisations(the WHO, for instance), which he has not foregone criticising–with or without good reason–, and because of the disastrous management on home soil. China for its part has also seen its reputation diminish over the doubts raised about its initial handling of the pandemic and the tardy and incomplete information it has provided. The two powers are going to vie for global leadership, particularly in the trade and technology fields, in a struggle that will play out in cyberspace above all. Yet probably, once the pandemic is over, it will be even more difficult than before for a bipolar world to form around them, as neither appears to have sufficient ascendency or political appeal to lead the world, or a substantial part of it. Other international players will act alongside them as regional poles of attraction of greater or lesser importance. The EU’S future foreign and security policy Without doubt, one of those poles will be the European Union, which could play a hugely important role in the future, striking a geopolitical balance between the two predominant powers and in relation to its main neighbours–Russia, the Middle East, Africa–, as well exerting 75
Jahrgang
2020 The EU faces the perfect storm
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