BRIEFING Belarus Change Tracker Expert Assessments BELARUS CHANGE TRACKER Pavel Slunkin, Artyom Shraibman, Philipp Bikanau, Henadz Korshunau, Kateryna Bornukova, Lev Lvovskiy June–August 2022 1 The Belarusian regime is deepening depen­den­ce on Russia and institutionalising relations with Russian-occupied territories in Georgia and Ukraine. There is an ongoing militarisation of both the Belarusian authorities and the democratic forces. Economic recession endures, despite Russia’s support and efforts to enter new markets, due to severed ties with the West and Ukraine. Real wages are tumbling. The combination of budgetary deficit and financial default is forcing the Belarus government resort to money issue and tax increases. The Lukashenka regime has most likely exhausted resources endeavouring to increase trust among the politically-neutral part of society. The regime's policy has led to a significant demand for a forceful struggle against the government in the protest part of society.