BRIEFING Belarus Change Tracker Expert Assessments BELARUS CHANGE TRACKER Pavel Slunkin, Artyom Shraibman, Philipp Bikanau, Henadz Korshunau, Kateryna Bornukova, Lev Lvovskiy September – November 2022 The regime is stepping up militarisation and preventive repressions, while abandoning any façade of direct democracy. Belarus’s gradual loss of sovereignty is accompanied by international isolation and its increasing involvement in Russia’s war. The state has intervened in the economy by imposing strict price controls and the rate of economic decline has slowed. Dependence on Russia continues to grow and attempts to use China as an alternative partner have not been very successful so far. The effects of the war on government-society relations are weakening. Instead, social optimism, related to the perceived improvement in the economic situation, has increased. 1