BRIEFING Belarus Change Tracker Expert Assessments BELARUS CHANGE TRACKER Pavel Slunkin, Artyom Shraibman, Philipp Bikanau, Henadz Korshunau, Kateryna Bornukova, Lev Lvovskiy December 2022— February 2023 The regime is intensifying its activities abroad and insulating its political system at home. The democratic opposition continues to be hindered by controversy. With the economy isolated and in crisis, Belarus is turning to Russia, the UAE and China. A budget deficit has led to a government default and raised taxes. An anti-war consensus is strengthening public demand for“quietude”, while the regime is expanding its control and wages a“silent” war against the diaspora. 1