Schlaglicht Israel Nr. 03/12 Aktuelles aus israelischen Tageszeitungen 23. Januar – 20. Februar 2012 1. Iran Die jüngsten Attentate auf Mitarbeiter israelischer Botschaften in Indien und Georgien haben die Debatte um die israelische Strategie gegenüber Iran neu entfacht. Die Anschläge werden als Vergel­tungsaktionen für tödliche Anschläge auf Physiker des iranischen Atomprogramms vor einigen Mona­ten gesehen, für welche der Iran Israel verantwort­lich macht. In der innerisraelischen Debatte stehen sich zwei Meinungen gegenüber: Die eine Seite argumentiert, ein Militärschlag gegen iranische Atomanlagen sei notwendig, um Iran daran zu hindern, waffenfähiges nukleares Material zu entwickeln und so die Sicher­heit Israels vor einem Atomschlag zu gewährleisten. Auf der anderen Seite herrscht die Befürchtung vor, dass der mögliche Gegenschlag Irans den Nutzen eines Präventivangriffs bei Weitem übersteigt. Auch wird erwogen, ob Israel militärisch stark genug für eine solche Operation und ihre Folgen ist. The Inevitable War with Iran “ Although macho talk in the Islamic Middle East is a standard adopted by all militant Islamic leaders, the Iranian government is flexing its muscles, flaunting its sharp teeth. It believes that economic sanctions will hurt, but not as much as caving in to American demands.[...] The American Administration is working hard at softening its seeming aim by masking its military buildup with wishful talking points. US Defense Secretary Panetta’s recent implications concerning Israel’s imminent attack plans are part of a grand-scale deception strategy. They have been designed to refocus the Iranians on the most suspicious front, rather than the one that would deliver the ultimate blow – the US military.[...] Retaliation will not be limited to hitting Israel.[...] A large scale“defensive” war against Iran[...] would be supported by the American public due to its defensive nature, a war that would boost Obama’s standing in the eyes of the American people, shortly ahead of the elections.[...] There is little doubt that a war with Iran can be avoided. There is high likelihood that the US will lead the effort even if Israel initiates the campaign.[...] There is no doubt. 2012 will see a new Gulf war. This time, the Ayatollah will be the one to pay the price.” Avi Perry, AS, 5.2.2012 Why It Pays For Iran to Expedite Its Nuclear Program “ History has shown, empirically, that states that attempt to acquire nuclear weapons and subsequently fail to do so, become increasingly more susceptible to military intervention and domestic civil uprisings. What motivation or rational logic would be employed in trying to convince Iran to halt its current nuclear program?[...] Just as it did for the states that successfully crossed the nuclear threshold, economic trade and normalized relations will resume after the development of an Iranian bomb; actions that Tehran is perhaps counting on [...]. Therefore, in the perception of Iranian leadership, it is only their intent to attain the one security deterrent that will safeguard them from foreign intervention and potentially preserve the Persian Empire. The presumption that the Islamic Republic would do anything but expedite its nuclear program is what I find most naive and irrational. Iran is neither of these.” Nicholas Kendryna, AS, 7.2.2012 Will America sacrifice Israel? “Israel must remember that she is America’s ally and client, but not friend[...]. Israel can stand tall in the face of its powerful ally because it never asked American soldiers to spill their blood for its defense. It's Washington that must beg for Israel’s alliance, as it cannot afford disengagement from the only democracy in that dark region. But will the US eventually be compelled to sacrifice Israel on the 1