Water: An Advocate for Reason Win-win Solutions for the Nile Basin KASSIAN STROH W ater has become a strategic good: although there is by and large enough water on earth, it is unevenly distributed and in some re­gions shortages have begun to emerge, mainly due to population growth. For a long time water has also been an issue in international politics and a source of inter-state conflicts. There are about two hundred interna­tional watercourses on earth, which are inhabited by about forty percent of the world’s population(Glatzl 2001). Especially in arid areas water has become a part of»high politics«; the possibilities for conflicts are increas­ing, writes Peter H. Gleick(Gleick 2000, p. 213). Thomas F. Homer­Dixon argues that non-renewable resources, such as oil, bear a higher po­tential for conflict than renewable resources. Amongst these renewables, however, Homer-Dixon argues, water is the one most likely to cause violent clashes(Homer-Dixon, 1994). Many authors therefore refer to a future of water wars. 1 The water war thesis is popular but wrong: histor­ically no water wars can be detected(Wolf, 1998). To refer to a sheer possibility of wars over water or war-like rhetoric in international water conflicts, is no empirical evidence. On the contrary, it can be observed that water conflicts tend to be resolved by negotiations and compromise (Wolf/ Hamner 2000). However, hardly any explanatory models exist for why this is the case. Although there are many theoretical points of departure which can ex­plain when and how water conflicts are likely to arise, they do not explain how the conflicts will be conducted – under what conditions they will be settled in a cooperative or a confrontational manner. This case study of the Nile River Basin will attempt to fill this gap. Without doubt, one of the most important and conflict-prone water disputes is taking place here, and many authors take this as the best example for their thesis of wars over water(»The Nile is a war waiting to start«; MacNeill/ Winsemius/ Yakushiji 1991, p. 56). 1. Compare Edig 1998; for an overview of other studies: Wolf/Hamner 2000, p. 124 ff. ipg 4/2003 Stroh, Win-win Solutions for the Nile Basin 95