Putin’s Second Republic: Russian Scenarios* SERGEI MEDVEDEV A few months before the presidential elections in Russia, due to be held on 14 March 2004, there is one thing about which most pollsters, an­alysts, and professional Russia-watchers agree: President Putin is almost certain to be re-elected for a second term. Indeed, many believe that Putin’s second term has already started, dating the commencement of Putin’s»Second Republic« to the cold days in late October 2003 when Mikhail Khodorkovsky, Russia’s richest man and owner of the biggest oil company, yukos , was arrested by the Federal Security Service( fsb ) at Novosibirsk airport. A few days later, amid a political crisis caused by the tycoon’s arrest, Chief of the Presidential Administration Alexander Voloshin, seen by many as Khodorkovsky’s main protector, stepped down in protest. This signaled the decline of the powerful»Family clan« (a group of business moguls and top administrators associated with the family and advisors of the former President Boris Yeltsin) that had dom­inated Russian politics between 1995 and 2003. To all intents and purposes, by late 2003 the era of oligarchic capitalism in Russia had come to an end. This raises the question: What next? Whither Russia after the Duma elections in December 2003 and the up­coming presidential elections? Ridding himself of commitments to Yeltsin’s»Family clan«, and having a compliant parliament at his disposal, how is Putin going to use the new mandate that the electorate will likely award him in March 2004? Russia is facing an enormous reform agenda – but are the President, and the new elites surrounding him, up to the task? The results of Putin’s first term in office provide mixed signals. * Based on the presentation at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, d.c. in October 2003(see http://www.csis.org/ruseura/Pubs/ afp / medvedev.pdf). Special thanks to Alexei Zudin, Pavel Baev, Andrei Ryabov, Igor Zevelev, Boris Makarenko, Peter Rutland and Graeme Herd for their comments and suggestions. 96 Medvedev, Putin’s Second Republic ipg 1/2004