Leaning on Hamas? ALASTAIR CROOKE* I n a recent radio debate on us public service radio in which I partici­pated, one of the us speakers said that the United States respected the outcome of the Palestinian elections. He added, however, that Palestin­ians must understand that choices also imply consequences; and that one consequence of their decision must be the isolation of any incoming gov­ernment and the ending of economic support. Israeli commentators have put forward a more nuanced version of this formula: unless Hamas complies with Israeli demands on recognition of Israel, disavows violence, and accepts all earlier agreements they will im­pose sanctions that damage Palestinian economic prospects – short of causing starvation or cutting off their water. The object, Israeli security spokesmen suggest, is to induce Hamas constituents to put pressure on their leaders or, if that fails, to dump them in fresh elections in favor of a »chastened and reformed« Fateh which is perceived as»moderate.« Collective punishment is not a new strategy. Following Israel’s invasion of south Lebanon in 1982 the reaction of the Shia’, which had not been hos­tile at the outset, turned to passive opposition as the occupation began to interfere in their lives and to diminish their independence. On October 16, 1983, however, an Israeli commander insisted on driving a military con­voy through the middle of an Ashoura celebration. This commemoration, which is the most sacred in the Shia’ calendar, turned into chaos as the con­voy forced its way through the 50,000 Lebanese attending it. This incident sparked the beginning of armed Shia’ resistance in Lebanon. During the following year Israeli forces tried to impose an economic cost on the local population in order to persuade them to turn away from * Alastair Crooke is director of Conflicts Forum(www.conflictsforum.com). For­merly he was a European Union mediator who negotiated with Hamas and other Palestinian factions. This article was written in February after holding a round of talks with Hamas as a result of their election win. Consequent events have not made obsolete the basic ideas presented in this text even though their implementation might seem less probable today. ipg 3/2006 Crooke, Leaning on Hamas 155