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The future is cooperative!? : Perceptions and reality from the Western Balkans
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5. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS Peace and stability in the Western Balkans are still fragile. Russias unprovoked aggression against Ukraine has exacerbated the sense of unpredictability of future developments. Unresolved conflicts such as the conflict between Serbia and Kosova, state dysfunction and permanent tensions in Bosnia and Herzegovina, the intensified domestic political disputes in Montenegro and identity problems in North Macedonia,- contribute to the feeling of insecurity of the citizens of the Western Balkans. Important steps have been taken in the direction of the intensification of political, economic and social exchanges between the countries of the Balkans during the last years in the framework of regional initiatives supported by the European Union and the United States. However, the level of integration of the Western Balkan countries is insignificant as it is shown by economic relations and especially low level of intraregional trade re p re s e n tin g a f if th o f e x p o rts an d a te n th o f im p o rts. P 36 35F P The l o w le ve l o f re gio n al e x c han ge s is also reflected in the lack of mutual trust- as shown by surveys and the perception of each other as threat. The security cooperation between Western Balkan countries is framed mostly on bilateral bases, within NATO, or within regional frameworks initiated and financed by the European Union. Some scholars are inclined to call the current state of security cooperation a kind of'security community'. All the security cooperation initiatives and mechanisms in the Western Balkans can hardly be described as offering any kind of cooperative security, not to mention a'security community'. However, after Russias aggression against Ukraine, favorable conditions that favor the intensification and institutionalization of regional security cooperation have come to the fore. The dedication of the United States and the European Union to provide conditions that encourage long-term solutions that guarantee regional peace and stability and the broad popular support for regional cooperation are among such conditions. The decision­makers have to seize the momentum to foster regional security cooperation. Leaders, politicians and decision-makers in the Western Balkan countries have to come to an understanding that to deal with transnational threats and challenges like organized crime, terrorism, migration, natural disasters and climate change, pandemics, states 36 Kaloyanchev. P. Kusen. I.& Mouzakitis. A.(2018). Untapped Potential: Intra-Regional Trade in the Western Balkans. Discussion Paper 080. European Commissions Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs. https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/default/files/economy-finance/dp080_western_balkans.pdf 20