sion services to ensure that monitoring is carried out properly. Most importantly, the Commission will have to show political leadership and courage and block or not release funding in case of breaches. It has not always shown the requisite resolve. In December 2023, for example, the Commission set a dangerous precedent by unfreezing€10.2 billion in cohesion funds to Hungary, citing»sufficient guarantees« on judicial independence reforms. In reality, however, it was all too obvious that this unfreezing was linked to lifting the Hungarian veto for the Ukraine support package of€50 bil lion. 23 By acting in this way, the Commission signalled to authoritarian or authoritarian-leaning member states that it accepts values as a negotiable item in exchange for other policy objectives, and that it does not take its role as»Guardian of the Treaties« as seriously as it should. As the conditionality mechanism is the most important safeguard against democratic backsliding in the next MFF, the Commission will have to make sure that its application is irreproachable and not subject to negotiation with member states. The Commission also plans to increase transparency with regard to beneficiaries of EU funds by publishing information on the recipients in a centralised database on the Commission‘s website. It also wants to»explore new processes or measures for risk-based thorough screening of beneficiaries of EU funding for security risks and incompatibility with EU values« to protect the EU budget from those holding radical or extremist views in member states. 24 While this increased scrutiny is a positive development, the assessment must be truly independent of political considerations, especially when far-right leaders are already in executive positions within the EU institutions. Otherwise, there is a risk that this instrument could be misused against actors defending democracy in the member states. In addition, the Early Detection and Exclusion System(EDES), which protects the EU budget from fraud and irregularities, will be extended to funds implemented under shared management, thereby broadening its scope significantly. Originally, EDES applied only to direct and indirect management funds(about 24 per cent of the EU budget); start ing in 2028, it will also cover shared management funds(about 75 per cent of the EU budget). 25 Complementary to the MFF proposal, the Commission published a White Paper for the anti-fraud architecture review, preparing a comprehensive review of the EU’s anti-fraud architecture. 26 The document reviews the EU anti-fraud system(AFA), composed of institutions such as the European Anti-Fraud Office(OLAF), the European Public Prosecutor’s Office(EPPO), the European Court of Auditors(ECA), Eurojust and Europol, as well as the newly established Anti-Money Laundering Authority(AMLA) 27 and the planned EU Customs Authority. The objective of the white paper is to strengthen the protection of the EU’s financial interests in the next MFF and to respond to new threats, such as transnational fraud, organised crime or new technologies. It includes proposals such as more systematic cooperation between OLAF and EPPO, better joint use of forensic and operational analytical capabilities, and possibly increased powers for Europol as a central actor in fraud analysis. 10. Recommendations In light of the challenges outlined above – including internal and external threats to democracy, deteriorating funding environments and 23 Jorge Liboreiro(2023): Brussels releases€10 billion in frozen EU funds for Hungary amid Orbán‘s threats, Euronews(December). 24 European Commission(2025): A dynamic EU Budget for the priorities of the future – The Multiannual Financial Framework 2028–2034, Communication COM(2025) 570 final, 16 July. 25 Jan Stráský/Federico Giovannelli(2025): Repurposing the EU budget for new challenges, in: OECD Economic Surveys: European Union and Euro Area 2025(July). 26 European Commission(2025): White Paper for the anti-fraud architecture review, COM/2025/546 final, 16 July. 27 AMLA will be operationalised by 2028. 12 Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung e.V.
Druckschrift
Support for democracy in the next MFF : the role of political foundations
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