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Leading issues in the economy of Pakistan : agenda for reforms
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SBPs Performance Since 2018 in 2018-19 the flows into the financial account would have been larger. Also, the almost draconian increase in the policy rate and big depreciation of the rupee may not have been necessary. 2.3 The Continuing Search for Financial Stability Pakistan entered a three-year Extended Fund Facility with the IMF in July 2019 of$6 billion. The macroeconomic projections made at that time in the Program for the period 2019-20 to 2021-22 are given in Table 2.4. Table 2.4: Macroeconomic Projections in the IMF Program for Pakistan 2019-20 to 2020-21 (Made on July 2019) PROJECTIONS 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 GDP Growth Rate 2.4 3.0 4.5 Rate of Inflation 13.0 8.3 6.0 Balance of Payments Current Account-6.7-5.5-5.3 Financial Account 8.7 7.9 8.6 Others 0.7 0.6 0.6 Balance of Payments 2.7 3.0 3.9 IMF 1.6 0.2 0.6 Change in Reserves 4.3 3.2 4.5 End period Reserves 11.6 14.8 19.3 Source: IMF Staff Report, July 2019 Therefore, the Program projected a gradual acceleration in the GDP growth rate and decline in the rate of inflation. A reduction of 50 percent was targeted for in the current account deficit in 2019-20 with further reductions in the next two years. Consequently, the foreign exchange reserves were expected to rise from$7.3 billion in 2018-19 to$11.6 billion in 2019-20 and reach$19.3 billion by the end of 2021-22. The SBP was expected to pursue an aggressive monetary policy with a market determined exchange rate and use of the policy rate to limit aggregate demand. The focus was on achieving sustained financial stability of the economy. The actual moves that have taken place since June 2019 up to November 2022 are listed below in Table 2.5. 29